Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#265
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#34
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#308
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 8.2% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.7 14.8
.500 or above 30.1% 68.7% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 25.3% 52.0% 23.9%
Conference Champion 2.0% 7.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 8.8% 26.6%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round2.5% 7.7% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 410 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 65   @ Clemson L 66-83 5%    
  Nov 10, 2022 310   Presbyterian W 75-68 73%    
  Nov 19, 2022 80   @ Butler L 64-80 8%    
  Nov 23, 2022 286   @ New Orleans L 82-83 47%    
  Nov 24, 2022 346   Denver W 80-72 74%    
  Nov 25, 2022 333   IUPUI W 74-68 69%    
  Nov 30, 2022 335   @ Charleston Southern W 80-77 59%    
  Dec 03, 2022 151   College of Charleston L 84-87 39%    
  Dec 13, 2022 2   @ North Carolina L 68-95 1%    
  Dec 17, 2022 152   Longwood L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 20, 2022 340   @ NC Central W 78-74 63%    
  Dec 29, 2022 130   Chattanooga L 71-76 34%    
  Dec 31, 2022 172   Samford L 81-83 42%    
  Jan 04, 2023 96   @ Furman L 69-83 12%    
  Jan 07, 2023 181   @ Wofford L 69-77 25%    
  Jan 11, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 19, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-74 21%    
  Jan 21, 2023 272   @ VMI L 79-82 42%    
  Jan 25, 2023 268   @ Western Carolina L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 28, 2023 198   Mercer L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 30, 2023 362   Chicago St. W 84-65 94%    
  Feb 02, 2023 272   VMI W 82-79 60%    
  Feb 04, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 08, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 68-79 19%    
  Feb 11, 2023 172   @ Samford L 78-86 26%    
  Feb 15, 2023 96   Furman L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 18, 2023 181   Wofford L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 22, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 72-80 27%    
  Feb 25, 2023 198   @ Mercer L 70-77 28%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.3 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.2 6.0 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 17.6 9th
10th 1.6 4.0 5.2 4.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 18.1 10th
Total 1.6 4.1 6.7 8.9 10.7 11.4 11.6 10.3 9.3 7.6 6.1 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 88.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 78.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 40.5% 31.3% 9.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4%
16-2 0.2% 39.8% 38.8% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6%
15-3 0.6% 21.8% 20.9% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1%
14-4 1.1% 18.6% 18.4% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.3%
13-5 2.1% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-6 3.0% 11.9% 11.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-7 4.3% 8.0% 8.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.0
10-8 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.7
9-9 7.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
8-10 9.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
7-11 10.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.1
6-12 11.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 11.5
5-13 11.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.3
4-14 10.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-15 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
2-16 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.7
1-17 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
0-18 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%