Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.5#311
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.5% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 14.0
.500 or above 82.6% 85.2% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 88.8% 68.5%
Conference Champion 28.3% 29.9% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 2.1%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
First Round22.6% 23.8% 8.9%
Second Round4.9% 5.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 91.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 300   Albany W 72-57 92%    
  Nov 10, 2022 124   @ Massachusetts L 73-76 40%    
  Nov 13, 2022 150   @ Penn L 71-72 49%    
  Nov 17, 2022 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-63 46%    
  Nov 22, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 82-64 94%    
  Nov 25, 2022 222   Fairfield W 67-61 69%    
  Nov 26, 2022 205   South Alabama W 70-65 67%    
  Nov 27, 2022 198   Mercer W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 02, 2022 304   @ LIU Brooklyn W 79-70 77%    
  Dec 07, 2022 65   @ Clemson L 64-72 25%    
  Dec 11, 2022 246   Navy W 68-58 80%    
  Dec 17, 2022 132   Northern Iowa W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 22, 2022 163   @ Bryant W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 31, 2022 151   College of Charleston W 80-74 67%    
  Jan 05, 2023 201   Drexel W 72-64 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook W 74-68 67%    
  Jan 11, 2023 153   @ Delaware L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 14, 2023 260   Monmouth W 73-61 83%    
  Jan 16, 2023 141   Hofstra W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 19, 2023 270   @ N.C. A&T W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 21, 2023 302   @ Elon W 71-62 76%    
  Jan 26, 2023 199   Northeastern W 68-60 73%    
  Jan 28, 2023 295   William & Mary W 78-63 87%    
  Feb 02, 2023 141   @ Hofstra L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 328   Hampton W 79-62 91%    
  Feb 11, 2023 201   @ Drexel W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 13, 2023 295   @ William & Mary W 75-66 75%    
  Feb 16, 2023 153   Delaware W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 270   N.C. A&T W 75-63 84%    
  Feb 23, 2023 151   @ College of Charleston L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 25, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington W 68-67 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 7.3 7.5 5.7 2.3 28.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 6.2 3.6 0.9 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.4 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.7 1.2 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.8 6.3 8.2 10.0 10.8 12.1 12.2 11.1 8.4 5.7 2.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
17-1 99.5% 5.7    5.4 0.3
16-2 89.8% 7.5    6.1 1.4 0.0
15-3 66.0% 7.3    4.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 33.5% 4.1    1.4 1.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 10.0% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 19.7 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.3% 83.1% 66.3% 16.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 49.8%
17-1 5.7% 61.9% 51.2% 10.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 21.9%
16-2 8.4% 46.9% 42.3% 4.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.5 7.9%
15-3 11.1% 35.4% 34.4% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 1.5%
14-4 12.2% 26.3% 26.1% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 0.3%
13-5 12.1% 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 9.7 0.0%
12-6 10.8% 15.1% 15.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 9.2 0.1%
11-7 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 8.8
10-8 8.2% 8.9% 8.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 7.4
9-9 6.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.0
8-10 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.6
7-11 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
6-12 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2
5-13 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.3% 21.7% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.9 5.4 5.3 3.5 2.1 1.4 76.7 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 99.2% 3.9 9.0 11.2 20.3 25.6 16.0 13.1 2.4 0.8 0.8