Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#238
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#154
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#246
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 13.2% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 15.1
.500 or above 65.2% 77.2% 46.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 80.6% 61.2%
Conference Champion 12.0% 15.6% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.1% 6.1%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round9.7% 12.5% 5.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 414 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 315   @ Columbia W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 12, 2022 43   @ Rutgers L 58-75 7%    
  Nov 16, 2022 283   Sacred Heart W 77-70 72%    
  Nov 23, 2022 240   @ Brown L 69-72 40%    
  Nov 27, 2022 359   Stonehill W 78-59 95%    
  Nov 30, 2022 280   Merrimack W 66-59 71%    
  Dec 03, 2022 283   @ Sacred Heart W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 05, 2022 304   @ LIU Brooklyn W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 08, 2022 124   @ Massachusetts L 72-82 22%    
  Dec 10, 2022 314   St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-67 77%    
  Dec 13, 2022 112   @ Rhode Island L 64-74 21%    
  Dec 21, 2022 233   Boston University W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 31, 2022 325   @ NJIT W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 05, 2023 337   Maine W 71-60 82%    
  Jan 08, 2023 300   @ Albany W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 11, 2023 104   Vermont L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 14, 2023 323   @ Binghamton W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 19, 2023 236   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 22, 2023 163   Bryant L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 25, 2023 337   @ Maine W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 28, 2023 329   @ New Hampshire W 67-62 64%    
  Feb 01, 2023 300   Albany W 71-63 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 325   NJIT W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 06, 2023 327   @ Hartford W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 104   @ Vermont L 63-74 19%    
  Feb 15, 2023 163   @ Bryant L 76-82 31%    
  Feb 18, 2023 323   Binghamton W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 236   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 25, 2023 329   New Hampshire W 70-59 79%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 3.7 2.2 0.6 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.8 6.6 4.2 1.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.2 5.9 2.1 0.2 19.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.5 6.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.7 1.7 0.2 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.6 7.1 9.2 10.7 11.9 13.0 11.8 10.3 7.8 4.6 2.2 0.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 2.2    2.0 0.2
14-2 79.1% 3.7    2.5 1.1 0.0
13-3 43.5% 3.4    1.5 1.6 0.3
12-4 15.6% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 3.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.3 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 62.6% 58.6% 4.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.7%
15-1 2.2% 48.8% 48.2% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.3%
14-2 4.6% 33.2% 33.1% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 0.2%
13-3 7.8% 24.9% 24.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 5.8
12-4 10.3% 16.9% 16.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 8.6
11-5 11.8% 12.3% 12.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 10.3
10-6 13.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 12.0
9-7 11.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.4
8-8 10.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.4
7-9 9.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.0
6-10 7.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
5-11 4.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-12 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-13 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-14 0.9% 0.9
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.5% 10.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 89.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.1 9.8 9.8 19.6 29.4 19.6 11.8