Preseason Rankings
Wagner
Northeast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#252
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#222
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#268
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.4% 48.4% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.4 15.3
.500 or above 70.0% 93.5% 67.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 96.3% 84.4%
Conference Champion 34.2% 56.2% 31.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four8.9% 6.1% 9.2%
First Round23.4% 45.1% 20.9%
Second Round1.0% 3.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 414 - 615 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 93   @ Temple L 61-74 10%    
  Nov 12, 2022 182   @ La Salle L 65-72 27%    
  Nov 18, 2022 222   Fairfield W 65-64 55%    
  Nov 20, 2022 46   @ Seton Hall L 59-77 7%    
  Nov 27, 2022 325   @ NJIT W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 03, 2022 266   @ Army L 70-72 45%    
  Dec 06, 2022 202   @ Fordham L 62-68 32%    
  Dec 15, 2022 258   Stony Brook W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 20, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 78-66 84%    
  Dec 29, 2022 304   @ LIU Brooklyn W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 31, 2022 280   Merrimack W 64-58 67%    
  Jan 05, 2023 359   @ Stonehill W 74-61 84%    
  Jan 07, 2023 291   St. Francis (PA) W 73-66 70%    
  Jan 16, 2023 280   @ Merrimack L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 20, 2023 349   Central Connecticut St. W 74-61 85%    
  Jan 22, 2023 283   Sacred Heart W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 26, 2023 314   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 02, 2023 283   @ Sacred Heart L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 319   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-73 58%    
  Feb 09, 2023 314   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 304   LIU Brooklyn W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 16, 2023 349   @ Central Connecticut St. W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 319   Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-70 75%    
  Feb 23, 2023 359   Stonehill W 77-58 93%    
  Feb 25, 2023 291   @ St. Francis (PA) W 70-69 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 8.7 9.3 6.5 3.0 34.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.3 6.8 3.4 0.7 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.4 7.5 9.4 11.4 12.9 12.9 12.2 10.0 6.5 3.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
15-1 100.0% 6.5    6.2 0.2
14-2 93.3% 9.3    7.8 1.5 0.0
13-3 71.1% 8.7    5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0
12-4 38.7% 5.0    1.9 2.3 0.7 0.1
11-5 12.6% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 24.6 7.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.0% 82.7% 82.6% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.5%
15-1 6.5% 68.2% 68.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.7 2.1
14-2 10.0% 58.7% 58.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.1 4.1
13-3 12.2% 43.4% 43.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.0 6.9
12-4 12.9% 31.5% 31.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 8.8
11-5 12.9% 23.8% 23.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.8
10-6 11.4% 14.8% 14.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 9.7
9-7 9.4% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.6
8-8 7.5% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 7.1
7-9 5.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.3
6-10 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.8
5-11 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-12 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-13 0.7% 0.7
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.0 7.3 14.6 71.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 92.5% 9.4 11.3 16.5 7.5 11.3 11.3 11.3 19.5 3.8