Preseason Rankings
Army
Patriot League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#266
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#75
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 7.3% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.7
.500 or above 54.5% 56.7% 19.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.8% 56.5% 27.4%
Conference Champion 7.7% 8.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 8.7% 24.6%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 1.0%
First Round6.1% 6.4% 1.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 52 - 6
Quad 412 - 714 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 359   Stonehill W 79-62 94%    
  Nov 16, 2022 244   @ Siena L 67-72 33%    
  Nov 19, 2022 295   @ William & Mary L 74-75 48%    
  Nov 20, 2022 293   Radford W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 24, 2022 165   Princeton L 71-77 31%    
  Dec 03, 2022 252   Wagner W 72-70 55%    
  Dec 07, 2022 325   NJIT W 74-66 74%    
  Dec 10, 2022 112   @ Rhode Island L 65-77 16%    
  Dec 18, 2022 258   @ Stony Brook L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 20, 2022 349   @ Central Connecticut St. W 74-68 68%    
  Dec 30, 2022 282   Lehigh W 77-72 64%    
  Jan 02, 2023 271   @ Lafayette L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 05, 2023 297   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 09, 2023 113   Colgate L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 11, 2023 312   American W 73-66 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 233   @ Boston University L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 18, 2023 274   Bucknell W 78-74 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 246   Navy W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 25, 2023 312   @ American W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 28, 2023 317   Holy Cross W 77-70 70%    
  Feb 01, 2023 282   @ Lehigh L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 274   @ Bucknell L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 08, 2023 297   Loyola Maryland W 71-65 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 246   @ Navy L 64-69 35%    
  Feb 15, 2023 113   @ Colgate L 68-80 17%    
  Feb 18, 2023 271   Lafayette W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 233   Boston University W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 317   @ Holy Cross W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 7.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.8 2.5 1.1 0.2 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.2 8.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.1 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.0 6.5 8.0 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.1 9.2 8.1 6.6 4.6 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 89.2% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 64.4% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.1
14-4 39.9% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.3% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 66.9% 64.7% 2.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3%
17-1 0.7% 51.0% 49.9% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.1%
16-2 1.8% 36.6% 36.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.0% 30.0% 30.0% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.1
14-4 4.6% 21.4% 21.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.6
13-5 6.6% 14.5% 14.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 5.7
12-6 8.1% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 7.2
11-7 9.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.5
10-8 10.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.5
9-9 10.5% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.1
8-10 10.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.8
7-11 9.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
6-12 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
5-13 6.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.4
4-14 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.7 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 75.3% 8.8 12.3 7.4 18.5 12.3 18.5 6.2
Lose Out 0.0%