Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#208
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.3#55
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#180
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 24.1% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.0 13.2 14.3
.500 or above 52.6% 82.1% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 90.8% 72.2%
Conference Champion 16.1% 29.9% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.5% 2.8%
First Four2.0% 1.5% 2.1%
First Round12.6% 23.4% 10.7%
Second Round1.2% 3.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 411 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 89   @ Washington L 71-82 15%    
  Nov 14, 2022 78   @ Colorado St. L 67-79 14%    
  Nov 21, 2022 207   UC Riverside L 71-72 50%    
  Nov 22, 2022 147   Abilene Christian L 76-79 40%    
  Nov 23, 2022 171   Wright St. L 77-78 45%    
  Nov 29, 2022 245   @ Tarleton St. L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 03, 2022 253   Utah Tech W 68-62 68%    
  Dec 07, 2022 193   @ California Baptist L 73-77 38%    
  Dec 16, 2022 273   @ Cal Poly W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 19, 2022 76   @ Utah St. L 67-80 15%    
  Dec 22, 2022 55   @ BYU L 69-83 13%    
  Dec 29, 2022 213   Northern Colorado W 82-79 60%    
  Dec 31, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 324   Idaho St. W 76-64 82%    
  Jan 12, 2023 170   @ Montana L 69-74 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 140   @ Montana St. L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 19, 2023 278   Portland St. W 81-73 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 275   Sacramento St. W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 26, 2023 342   @ Idaho W 82-74 74%    
  Jan 28, 2023 185   @ Eastern Washington L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 04, 2023 324   @ Idaho St. W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 06, 2023 213   @ Northern Colorado L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 09, 2023 140   Montana St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 170   Montana W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 16, 2023 275   @ Sacramento St. W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 278   @ Portland St. W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 23, 2023 185   Eastern Washington W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 342   Idaho W 85-71 86%    
  Feb 27, 2023 320   @ Northern Arizona W 75-70 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.4 3.8 2.2 0.7 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 5.3 4.7 2.1 0.4 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.5 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 4.0 1.3 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.4 10.4 11.1 11.0 10.4 8.9 6.5 4.2 2.2 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.1
16-2 90.9% 3.8    3.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 67.5% 4.4    2.8 1.5 0.1
14-4 38.1% 3.4    1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.7% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 10.6 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 70.8% 65.1% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.2%
17-1 2.2% 55.1% 52.6% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 5.3%
16-2 4.2% 43.3% 42.6% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 1.3%
15-3 6.5% 31.3% 31.1% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 4.5 0.3%
14-4 8.9% 25.2% 25.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 6.7
13-5 10.4% 17.3% 17.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 8.6
12-6 11.0% 12.7% 12.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 9.6
11-7 11.1% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 10.1
10-8 10.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.8
9-9 9.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.1
8-10 7.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-11 6.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.1
6-12 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 3.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.5% 13.3% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 86.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7 16.7
Lose Out 0.0%