Navy
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#167
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#146
Pace63.3#314
Improvement+0.0#164

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#159
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks-2.9#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#25
Freethrows-2.7#317
Improvement+0.0#144

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#191
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#228
Layups/Dunks+3.1#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
Freethrows+1.5#110
Improvement+0.0#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 23.5% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 91.6% 94.1% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 92.9% 87.6%
Conference Champion 27.7% 29.4% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.5%
First Round21.5% 23.2% 14.4%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 415 - 519 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 288   @ William & Mary W 74-59 64%     1 - 0 +11.4 +7.9 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2022 143   Princeton W 74-73 55%     2 - 0 -0.3 +3.0 -3.3
  Nov 14, 2022 312   @ Coppin St. L 68-75 71%     2 - 1 -12.8 -10.1 -2.6
  Nov 18, 2022 285   UC San Diego W 78-69 OT 81%     3 - 1 -0.3 -5.0 +4.1
  Nov 20, 2022 147   Youngstown St. W 80-67 56%     4 - 1 +11.5 +9.7 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2022 205   Mount St. Mary's W 75-59 68%     5 - 1 +11.1 +7.2 +5.5
  Nov 30, 2022 160   @ Lipscomb L 77-82 37%     5 - 2 -1.6 +4.6 -6.4
  Dec 03, 2022 338   @ VMI W 76-67 81%    
  Dec 07, 2022 14   @ West Virginia L 59-78 3%    
  Dec 11, 2022 115   @ Towson L 62-69 27%    
  Dec 21, 2022 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-68 19%    
  Dec 30, 2022 259   @ Boston University W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 02, 2023 353   Holy Cross W 77-60 95%    
  Jan 05, 2023 123   @ Colgate L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 08, 2023 299   Lehigh W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 11, 2023 273   Lafayette W 66-57 78%    
  Jan 14, 2023 295   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-63 66%    
  Jan 18, 2023 259   Boston University W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 21, 2023 306   @ Army W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 25, 2023 223   @ Bucknell W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 28, 2023 235   American W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 01, 2023 273   @ Lafayette W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 353   @ Holy Cross W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 08, 2023 223   Bucknell W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 306   Army W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 15, 2023 299   @ Lehigh W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 18, 2023 295   Loyola Maryland W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 22, 2023 235   @ American W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 123   Colgate L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.7 7.7 5.7 2.6 0.5 27.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 7.1 9.8 6.1 2.2 0.3 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 5.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.3 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.8 9.7 12.6 14.7 15.9 13.1 9.9 6.1 2.6 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.1
16-2 94.3% 5.7    5.0 0.7
15-3 77.5% 7.7    5.3 2.3 0.1
14-4 51.2% 6.7    3.4 2.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.1% 3.5    1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.7% 27.7 18.1 7.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 56.6% 55.7% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.1%
17-1 2.6% 52.4% 52.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.4%
16-2 6.1% 45.5% 45.5% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.2 3.3
15-3 9.9% 37.7% 37.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.5 6.2
14-4 13.1% 30.2% 30.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.0 9.1
13-5 15.9% 23.2% 23.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.2 12.2
12-6 14.7% 18.3% 18.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 12.0
11-7 12.6% 13.8% 13.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 10.9
10-8 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 8.8
9-9 6.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 6.4
8-10 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.0
7-11 2.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.1
6-12 1.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 8.4 6.3 2.1 78.1 0.0%