Towson
Colonial Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#118
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#56
Pace63.1#323
Improvement-0.2#218

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#110
First Shot+0.9#139
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#104
Layup/Dunks+3.9#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#253
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement+0.0#166

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#125
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#102
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#331
Freethrows+0.5#156
Improvement-0.2#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 21.1% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.6% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 99.1% 99.4% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 96.0% 91.8%
Conference Champion 19.6% 20.2% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round20.0% 20.5% 14.0%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 36 - 39 - 6
Quad 414 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 326   Albany W 67-62 94%     1 - 0 -8.7 -10.2 +1.7
  Nov 10, 2022 99   @ Massachusetts W 67-55 34%     2 - 0 +20.0 +5.1 +16.0
  Nov 13, 2022 159   @ Penn W 80-74 51%     3 - 0 +9.6 +7.5 +2.1
  Nov 17, 2022 223   @ UNC Greensboro W 56-53 65%     4 - 0 +2.7 -6.0 +9.2
  Nov 22, 2022 313   Coppin St. W 83-67 92%     5 - 0 +4.0 +10.4 -4.9
  Nov 25, 2022 236   Fairfield L 69-74 76%     5 - 1 -8.8 +3.7 -13.2
  Nov 26, 2022 148   South Alabama W 62-60 59%     6 - 1 +3.3 -7.1 +10.5
  Nov 27, 2022 200   Mercer W 70-60 70%     7 - 1 +8.3 +2.7 +6.8
  Dec 02, 2022 350   @ LIU Brooklyn W 77-63 91%    
  Dec 07, 2022 76   @ Clemson L 64-70 27%    
  Dec 11, 2022 170   Navy W 68-61 73%    
  Dec 17, 2022 174   Northern Iowa W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 22, 2022 111   @ Bryant L 75-78 38%    
  Dec 31, 2022 81   College of Charleston W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 05, 2023 173   Drexel W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 343   @ Stony Brook W 73-60 89%    
  Jan 11, 2023 176   @ Delaware W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 14, 2023 329   Monmouth W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 16, 2023 131   Hofstra W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 19, 2023 274   @ N.C. A&T W 70-64 72%    
  Jan 21, 2023 346   @ Elon W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 26, 2023 257   Northeastern W 69-58 85%    
  Jan 28, 2023 287   William & Mary W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 02, 2023 131   @ Hofstra L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 08, 2023 334   Hampton W 79-60 95%    
  Feb 11, 2023 173   @ Drexel W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 13, 2023 287   @ William & Mary W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 16, 2023 176   Delaware W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 18, 2023 274   N.C. A&T W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 23, 2023 81   @ College of Charleston L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 25, 2023 138   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-65 45%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.7 6.0 2.6 0.6 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.8 8.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.4 8.2 3.6 0.3 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.4 3.5 0.3 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.6 3.1 0.3 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.7 2.3 0.2 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.9 8.4 12.3 15.9 17.3 15.3 11.6 6.7 2.6 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.8% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 89.7% 6.0    4.6 1.4 0.0
15-3 57.3% 6.7    3.0 3.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 20.6% 3.2    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 11.3 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 75.2% 44.6% 30.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 55.2%
17-1 2.6% 59.4% 43.8% 15.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 27.7%
16-2 6.7% 42.0% 36.5% 5.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.9 8.6%
15-3 11.6% 31.6% 29.8% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.2 8.0 2.5%
14-4 15.3% 24.5% 24.1% 0.4% 12.6 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 11.6 0.5%
13-5 17.3% 19.1% 19.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 14.0 0.1%
12-6 15.9% 15.0% 14.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.5 0.0%
11-7 12.3% 11.3% 11.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.9
10-8 8.4% 9.6% 9.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.6
9-9 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
8-10 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
7-11 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 19.3% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 6.7 6.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 79.5 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 86.8% 6.8 10.5 10.5 23.7 15.8 5.3 10.5 10.5