Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#85
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#68
Pace71.2#115
Improvement-0.2#223

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#238
First Shot+0.2#164
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#320
Layup/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows+4.6#11
Improvement-0.3#302

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#17
First Shot+7.4#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#100
Layups/Dunks-0.7#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#84
Freethrows+1.4#102
Improvement+0.0#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 25.9% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.6% 13.9% 4.8%
Average Seed 11.1 10.7 11.6
.500 or above 94.0% 97.5% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 85.1% 76.5%
Conference Champion 14.0% 17.6% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four4.0% 5.9% 2.6%
First Round17.2% 22.6% 13.2%
Second Round5.2% 7.7% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.9% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 6
Quad 38 - 312 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 265   Manhattan W 73-56 91%     1 - 0 +8.6 -6.1 +14.0
  Nov 12, 2022 262   Morgan St. W 69-54 90%     2 - 0 +6.9 -9.5 +15.6
  Nov 16, 2022 40   Arizona St. L 59-63 34%     2 - 1 +6.5 -3.8 +10.2
  Nov 17, 2022 106   Pittsburgh W 71-67 58%     3 - 1 +8.4 -3.3 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2022 30   @ Memphis L 47-62 18%     3 - 2 +0.8 -15.8 +16.3
  Nov 26, 2022 215   Kennesaw St. W 64-61 87%     4 - 2 -2.8 -10.3 +7.8
  Nov 30, 2022 88   Vanderbilt W 70-65 62%     5 - 2 +8.1 -0.7 +8.8
  Dec 03, 2022 96   @ Temple L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 07, 2022 136   Jacksonville W 61-54 74%    
  Dec 11, 2022 323   Howard W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 14, 2022 208   Radford W 69-58 86%    
  Dec 17, 2022 266   Northern Illinois W 74-59 91%    
  Dec 21, 2022 170   Navy W 68-59 81%    
  Dec 31, 2022 220   La Salle W 69-56 87%    
  Jan 04, 2023 130   @ Duquesne W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 07, 2023 116   Davidson W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 10, 2023 171   @ Loyola Chicago W 62-59 62%    
  Jan 13, 2023 74   @ Dayton L 56-60 36%    
  Jan 17, 2023 99   Massachusetts W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 20, 2023 100   @ Richmond L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 25, 2023 158   George Mason W 69-60 78%    
  Jan 28, 2023 108   St. Bonaventure W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 31, 2023 116   @ Davidson L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 03, 2023 46   @ Saint Louis L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 07, 2023 74   Dayton W 59-57 57%    
  Feb 15, 2023 180   @ Rhode Island W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 18, 2023 177   Fordham W 68-58 80%    
  Feb 21, 2023 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 24, 2023 100   Richmond W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 28, 2023 46   Saint Louis L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 04, 2023 194   @ George Washington W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 14.0 1st
2nd 0.5 3.2 5.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 5.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.6 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.3 4.3 0.7 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.6 1.3 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.2 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.6 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.4 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.6 8.5 10.9 13.1 14.5 13.7 11.3 8.3 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.5% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.9% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 81.3% 4.0    2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.1% 4.1    1.8 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.1% 2.2    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 8.1 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 95.8% 32.3% 63.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.8%
17-1 0.8% 92.4% 36.8% 55.6% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.0%
16-2 2.4% 78.5% 32.7% 45.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 68.0%
15-3 5.0% 63.8% 26.0% 37.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.8 51.1%
14-4 8.3% 42.0% 20.7% 21.2% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 4.8 26.8%
13-5 11.3% 28.3% 16.3% 12.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.1 14.4%
12-6 13.7% 18.2% 13.3% 4.8% 11.9 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 11.2 5.6%
11-7 14.5% 11.0% 9.8% 1.2% 12.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 12.9 1.3%
10-8 13.1% 8.8% 8.4% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.9 0.4%
9-9 10.9% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.0%
8-10 8.5% 4.7% 4.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1
7-11 5.6% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
6-12 3.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.4% 11.9% 7.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.5 5.6 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 80.6 8.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 10.7 10.7 32.1 28.6 16.1 1.8