Colgate
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#123
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#201
Pace69.4#161
Improvement-0.2#310

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#60
First Shot+4.3#67
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks+3.9#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#66
Freethrows-3.0#329
Improvement-0.1#297

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#219
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#222
Layups/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#252
Freethrows+3.5#25
Improvement-0.1#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.4% 60.8% 51.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.2 14.2
.500 or above 98.2% 99.7% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.4% 98.6%
Conference Champion 61.0% 70.0% 59.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 0.3% 1.6%
First Round51.8% 60.7% 50.6%
Second Round5.5% 9.5% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.2% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 44 - 6
Quad 417 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 190   @ Buffalo L 87-88 55%     0 - 1 +0.9 +0.8 +0.2
  Nov 10, 2022 277   @ Brown W 77-68 72%     1 - 1 +6.3 +5.2 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2022 96   @ Syracuse W 80-68 32%     2 - 1 +20.1 +13.6 +7.0
  Nov 18, 2022 133   Duquesne L 80-85 53%     2 - 2 -2.5 +2.3 -4.6
  Nov 21, 2022 328   Monmouth W 85-66 94%     3 - 2 +4.9 +10.6 -4.8
  Nov 25, 2022 195   Delaware L 68-72 67%     3 - 3 -5.4 -7.0 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2022 159   @ Penn L 69-81 49%     3 - 4 -8.6 -3.7 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2022 361   Hartford W 92-58 96%     4 - 4 +16.8 +22.7 -1.8
  Dec 02, 2022 29   @ Auburn L 65-78 12%    
  Dec 07, 2022 337   @ Binghamton W 82-70 88%    
  Dec 10, 2022 199   Vermont W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 22, 2022 157   Cornell W 83-77 70%    
  Dec 30, 2022 295   @ Loyola Maryland W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 02, 2023 299   @ Lehigh W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 05, 2023 167   Navy W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 09, 2023 306   @ Army W 81-73 77%    
  Jan 11, 2023 259   Boston University W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 14, 2023 223   Bucknell W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 18, 2023 353   @ Holy Cross W 82-67 91%    
  Jan 21, 2023 235   American W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 23, 2023 259   @ Boston University W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 28, 2023 273   Lafayette W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 30, 2023 295   Loyola Maryland W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 04, 2023 235   @ American W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2023 299   Lehigh W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 11, 2023 223   @ Bucknell W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 15, 2023 306   Army W 84-70 90%    
  Feb 18, 2023 353   Holy Cross W 85-64 97%    
  Feb 22, 2023 273   @ Lafayette W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 25, 2023 167   @ Navy W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.1 11.5 16.1 14.7 9.4 2.9 61.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.6 7.1 5.5 2.2 0.4 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.2 9.9 13.9 17.3 18.3 15.1 9.4 2.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 100.0% 9.4    9.4 0.1
16-2 97.7% 14.7    13.7 1.0
15-3 88.0% 16.1    12.8 3.3 0.1
14-4 66.6% 11.5    7.0 3.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 37.0% 5.1    2.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 61.0% 61.0 47.8 11.1 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 86.1% 85.4% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 4.8%
17-1 9.4% 74.9% 74.7% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 0.4%
16-2 15.1% 69.0% 69.0% 13.6 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 4.7
15-3 18.3% 58.7% 58.7% 14.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 2.7 0.1 7.6
14-4 17.3% 52.8% 52.8% 14.4 0.1 0.9 4.3 3.4 0.4 8.1
13-5 13.9% 43.1% 43.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.0 0.7 7.9
12-6 9.9% 35.0% 35.0% 15.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.0 6.4
11-7 6.2% 29.8% 29.8% 15.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 4.4
10-8 3.9% 22.1% 22.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 3.0
9-9 1.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.5
8-10 0.8% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.1 0.6
7-11 0.4% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 0.4
6-12 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.4% 52.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 11.2 20.5 13.3 4.2 47.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 95.8% 10.3 1.4 2.8 2.8 8.5 11.3 9.9 42.3 14.1 2.8