UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#173
Pace79.5#14
Improvement-0.1#236

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#204
First Shot-1.5#222
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks-0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows-0.4#196
Improvement-0.2#312

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#154
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#161
Layups/Dunks-1.4#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#235
Freethrows-0.8#221
Improvement+0.1#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.3% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 73.0% 82.1% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 71.7% 61.5%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.8% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.7% 3.3%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round4.1% 5.0% 3.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 232   @ California W 75-65 51%     1 - 0 +9.3 +3.7 +5.6
  Nov 12, 2022 135   @ Loyola Marymount L 75-85 29%     1 - 1 -4.5 -1.8 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2022 270   Arkansas St. W 75-60 78%     2 - 1 +6.6 +2.2 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2022 261   Sacramento St. W 82-71 67%     3 - 1 +6.1 +2.0 +3.7
  Nov 26, 2022 226   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 85-87 50%     3 - 2 -2.4 +2.9 -5.1
  Nov 27, 2022 237   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-71 63%     4 - 2 -1.8 -8.3 +6.3
  Nov 28, 2022 259   Boston University W 81-70 OT 67%     5 - 2 +6.1 -5.0 +9.5
  Dec 01, 2022 212   Pacific L 72-74 70%     5 - 3 -7.7 -8.7 +1.1
  Dec 17, 2022 258   @ Eastern Washington W 78-76 55%    
  Dec 21, 2022 7   @ UCLA L 66-87 2%    
  Dec 30, 2022 142   @ Hawaii L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 05, 2023 49   UC Irvine L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 07, 2023 265   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 11, 2023 298   @ Cal St. Northridge W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 207   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 16, 2023 285   @ UC San Diego W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 19, 2023 158   UC Riverside W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 21, 2023 283   Cal Poly W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 26, 2023 265   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 28, 2023 164   @ Long Beach St. L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 02, 2023 142   Hawaii W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 158   @ UC Riverside L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 163   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 15, 2023 298   Cal St. Northridge W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 49   @ UC Irvine L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 20, 2023 285   UC San Diego W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 23, 2023 207   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 25, 2023 283   @ Cal Poly W 70-67 60%    
  Mar 02, 2023 163   UC Santa Barbara W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 164   Long Beach St. W 78-76 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.8 4.1 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.0 5.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.4 11.2 13.2 13.3 12.4 10.8 7.8 5.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 88.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 75.5% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 39.5% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
15-5 19.0% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 21.7% 21.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 22.5% 22.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.3% 20.1% 20.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
16-4 2.7% 11.8% 11.8% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
15-5 5.1% 10.8% 10.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.5
14-6 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.2
13-7 10.8% 5.9% 5.9% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 10.2
12-8 12.4% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.9
11-9 13.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.8
10-10 13.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.2 0.2 12.9
9-11 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.9
8-12 8.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.0
6-14 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 95.7 0.0%