UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#215
Pace64.7#279
Improvement-0.4#319

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#181
First Shot+2.2#106
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#317
Layup/Dunks+5.5#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#343
Freethrows+2.7#39
Improvement-0.4#332

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#158
First Shot-3.3#279
After Offensive Rebounds+4.0#13
Layups/Dunks-4.4#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#125
Freethrows-0.3#195
Improvement-0.1#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.2% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 69.6% 76.4% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 75.1% 60.7%
Conference Champion 6.5% 7.5% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.8% 3.7%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round6.2% 7.0% 3.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 411 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 154   Fresno St. W 61-54 48%     1 - 0 +7.9 -0.2 +9.0
  Nov 18, 2022 304   @ Northern Arizona L 54-63 70%     1 - 1 -14.0 -21.6 +7.3
  Nov 21, 2022 334   Hampton W 79-66 92%     2 - 1 -1.9 -0.4 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2022 325   North Alabama W 89-71 90%     3 - 1 +4.5 +9.8 -4.9
  Nov 29, 2022 130   @ Duquesne L 61-72 30%     3 - 2 -5.3 -6.8 +0.5
  Dec 03, 2022 228   Pacific W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 10, 2022 134   @ Pepperdine L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 17, 2022 192   @ Portland St. L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 21, 2022 204   Appalachian St. W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 29, 2022 211   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-67 50%    
  Dec 31, 2022 283   UC San Diego W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 285   @ Cal Poly W 65-61 63%    
  Jan 11, 2023 264   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 62-59 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 152   UC Riverside W 67-65 59%    
  Jan 16, 2023 49   @ UC Irvine L 58-70 14%    
  Jan 19, 2023 299   Cal St. Northridge W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 264   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-56 78%    
  Jan 27, 2023 143   @ Hawaii L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 02, 2023 285   Cal Poly W 68-58 81%    
  Feb 04, 2023 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 09, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 161   UC Davis W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 15, 2023 49   UC Irvine L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 18, 2023 152   @ UC Riverside L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 20, 2023 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 23, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 25, 2023 283   @ UC San Diego W 67-63 63%    
  Mar 02, 2023 161   @ UC Davis L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 04, 2023 143   Hawaii W 63-61 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.7 4.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.3 5.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.3 1.4 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.3 1.1 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.3 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.7 12.4 11.5 9.2 6.7 4.3 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.1% 0.9    0.7 0.2
17-3 69.5% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 42.6% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.2% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 84.6% 65.4% 19.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.6%
19-1 0.3% 36.9% 27.5% 9.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.0%
18-2 0.9% 27.5% 26.9% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.9%
17-3 2.4% 20.8% 20.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9
16-4 4.3% 19.2% 19.2% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5
15-5 6.7% 14.1% 14.1% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7
14-6 9.2% 10.6% 10.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.2
13-7 11.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 10.4
12-8 12.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.7
11-9 12.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.2
10-10 11.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 10.8
9-11 9.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
8-12 7.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.5
7-13 5.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.3
6-14 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.1 93.5 0.0%