Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#165
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#146
Pace76.6#37
Improvement-0.3#248

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#209
First Shot-2.1#246
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#126
Layup/Dunks+7.5#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.7#358
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement-0.5#351

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#131
First Shot+3.0#80
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#273
Layups/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
Freethrows-3.3#332
Improvement+0.2#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.6% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 70.0% 82.4% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.1% 77.7% 66.3%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.9% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.2% 2.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round5.7% 7.4% 4.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 160   @ California Baptist W 79-64 38%     1 - 0 +18.4 +9.6 +8.8
  Nov 11, 2022 9   @ UCLA L 69-93 4%     1 - 1 -3.5 -4.1 +3.8
  Nov 13, 2022 175   Montana St. L 57-70 63%     1 - 2 -16.2 -14.9 -1.9
  Nov 25, 2022 301   Oakland W 78-70 78%     2 - 2 +0.2 -8.4 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2022 82   North Texas L 47-68 27%     2 - 3 -14.4 -14.5 -2.8
  Nov 27, 2022 196   Vermont W 78-58 57%     3 - 3 +18.4 +2.2 +15.6
  Dec 03, 2022 182   @ Utah Valley L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 10, 2022 260   @ Sacramento St. W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 14, 2022 73   @ USC L 67-77 17%    
  Dec 21, 2022 335   Idaho W 81-66 92%    
  Dec 29, 2022 283   UC San Diego W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 31, 2022 152   UC Riverside W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 05, 2023 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 07, 2023 49   @ UC Irvine L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 11, 2023 285   Cal Poly W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 15, 2023 143   @ Hawaii L 65-69 34%    
  Jan 19, 2023 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 283   @ UC San Diego W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 26, 2023 285   @ Cal Poly W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 161   UC Davis W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 02, 2023 211   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 49   UC Irvine L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 09, 2023 164   UC Santa Barbara W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 264   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 15, 2023 152   @ UC Riverside L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 18, 2023 143   Hawaii W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 23, 2023 164   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 25, 2023 299   Cal St. Northridge W 75-64 83%    
  Mar 02, 2023 264   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-60 78%    
  Mar 04, 2023 161   @ UC Davis L 76-79 39%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.8 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.6 5.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.7 5.3 1.9 0.3 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.6 9.9 11.8 12.7 12.7 11.6 8.8 6.2 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 91.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 70.0% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 43.4% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.0% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 74.1% 51.9% 22.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.2%
19-1 0.2% 38.7% 32.4% 6.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.3%
18-2 0.8% 22.6% 20.1% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 3.1%
17-3 2.2% 19.1% 18.5% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7 0.7%
16-4 4.1% 16.0% 16.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.5
15-5 6.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.4
14-6 8.8% 9.8% 9.8% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.0
13-7 11.6% 7.7% 7.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 10.7
12-8 12.7% 6.1% 6.1% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 11.9
11-9 12.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.2
10-10 11.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.4
9-11 9.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 9.7
8-12 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.5
7-13 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.0
6-14 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.2
5-15 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 94.0 0.1%