Pacific
West Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#228
Expected Predictive Rating-11.6#322
Pace73.4#75
Improvement-0.5#329

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#159
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#310
Layup/Dunks-0.7#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#91
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement-0.3#298

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#290
First Shot-2.9#268
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#261
Layups/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
Freethrows-0.9#235
Improvement-0.2#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 2.6% 6.4% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 8.6% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 54.6% 46.3% 57.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 64 - 15
Quad 45 - 59 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 79   @ Stanford L 78-88 11%     0 - 1 +0.0 +6.8 -6.1
  Nov 13, 2022 303   @ North Dakota St. W 91-86 55%     1 - 1 +0.2 +4.7 -5.1
  Nov 15, 2022 297   @ North Dakota W 93-63 54%     2 - 1 +25.4 +13.6 +11.0
  Nov 18, 2022 211   Cal St. Fullerton L 91-94 2OT 57%     2 - 2 -8.5 -2.0 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2022 239   Mount St. Mary's L 65-69 63%     2 - 3 -10.9 -8.7 -2.4
  Nov 25, 2022 335   Idaho L 81-84 85%     2 - 4 -18.0 -1.0 -17.0
  Nov 28, 2022 285   Cal Poly L 58-62 71%     2 - 5 -13.4 -13.1 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2022 161   @ UC Davis L 76-83 25%    
  Dec 03, 2022 164   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 06, 2022 304   Northern Arizona W 79-72 75%    
  Dec 12, 2022 154   Fresno St. L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 19, 2022 185   San Jose St. W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 20, 2022 330   @ Lamar W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 29, 2022 87   BYU L 75-82 27%    
  Dec 31, 2022 132   Loyola Marymount L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 05, 2023 179   @ San Diego L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 07, 2023 134   @ Pepperdine L 74-83 20%    
  Jan 14, 2023 103   Santa Clara L 76-81 31%    
  Jan 19, 2023 84   @ San Francisco L 73-86 12%    
  Jan 21, 2023 11   Gonzaga L 75-93 5%    
  Jan 28, 2023 103   @ Santa Clara L 73-84 15%    
  Feb 02, 2023 134   Pepperdine L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 04, 2023 87   @ BYU L 72-85 13%    
  Feb 09, 2023 110   @ Portland L 75-86 17%    
  Feb 11, 2023 179   San Diego L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 16, 2023 84   San Francisco L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 18, 2023 132   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 23, 2023 32   @ St. Mary's L 58-77 4%    
  Feb 25, 2023 110   Portland L 78-83 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 4 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.8 1.3 0.2 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.7 2.0 0.1 13.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 7.7 9.7 3.6 0.2 23.5 9th
10th 3.3 9.9 14.1 10.2 3.3 0.2 41.0 10th
Total 3.3 10.0 16.3 18.4 17.6 13.8 9.5 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 7.7% 0.0    0.0
11-5 1.0% 0.0    0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-7 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-8 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.0
7-9 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-10 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-11 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-12 17.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.6
3-13 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.4
2-14 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
1-15 10.0% 10.0
0-16 3.3% 3.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%