Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#272
Expected Predictive Rating-11.7#323
Pace64.1#295
Improvement-0.3#284

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#326
First Shot-6.0#333
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#132
Layup/Dunks+2.0#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows-4.6#362
Improvement-0.3#323

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#186
First Shot-1.2#217
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#121
Layups/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#317
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement+0.0#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 22.6% 23.8% 5.4%
.500 or above in Conference 18.5% 19.2% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 18.2% 32.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 93.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 62   @ LSU L 52-61 7%     0 - 1 +2.3 -9.0 +10.5
  Nov 18, 2022 161   @ UC Davis L 60-75 20%     0 - 2 -11.6 -9.6 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2022 328   Tennessee Martin W 70-64 79%     1 - 2 -8.0 -10.8 +2.8
  Nov 25, 2022 259   Prairie View L 59-67 59%     1 - 3 -16.0 -14.4 -2.0
  Dec 01, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 73-57 94%    
  Dec 06, 2022 319   @ Central Arkansas W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 09, 2022 219   @ Air Force L 56-61 31%    
  Dec 14, 2022 234   Southeast Missouri St. W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 19, 2022 355   Alabama St. W 71-59 87%    
  Dec 22, 2022 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-67 75%    
  Dec 29, 2022 147   @ Old Dominion L 57-67 18%    
  Dec 31, 2022 316   Louisiana Monroe W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 58-68 18%    
  Jan 07, 2023 156   @ Troy L 61-70 20%    
  Jan 12, 2023 167   Texas St. L 60-63 41%    
  Jan 14, 2023 109   Southern Miss L 58-65 28%    
  Jan 19, 2023 122   Louisiana L 62-68 30%    
  Jan 21, 2023 94   Marshall L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 26, 2023 109   @ Southern Miss L 55-68 13%    
  Jan 28, 2023 204   @ Appalachian St. L 59-66 27%    
  Feb 02, 2023 148   South Alabama L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 04, 2023 240   Coastal Carolina W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 09, 2023 167   @ Texas St. L 57-66 22%    
  Feb 11, 2023 292   @ Georgia Southern L 62-64 45%    
  Feb 16, 2023 156   Troy L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 18, 2023 205   Georgia St. L 61-62 48%    
  Feb 22, 2023 122   @ Louisiana L 59-71 15%    
  Feb 24, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.2 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.8 1.9 0.2 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.4 3.4 0.5 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.5 4.7 1.0 0.0 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.8 5.9 1.6 0.1 13.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 5.0 6.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 15.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.8 13th
14th 0.6 2.3 4.0 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.4 14th
Total 0.6 2.4 5.9 9.5 12.2 14.2 14.0 12.4 10.3 7.5 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 73.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 61.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 26.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 5.5% 5.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 4.5% 4.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
11-7 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-8 4.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
9-9 7.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.4
8-10 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.3
7-11 12.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.3
6-12 14.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.9
5-13 14.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-14 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-15 9.5% 9.5
2-16 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%