UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#152
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#87
Pace66.7#233
Improvement-0.1#168

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#180
First Shot-0.4#182
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#220
Freethrows-0.2#185
Improvement+0.0#164

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#136
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#45
Layups/Dunks-0.3#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#214
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement-0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.1% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 76.7% 80.9% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 80.1% 67.8%
Conference Champion 7.1% 7.7% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round7.2% 7.9% 4.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 44   @ Colorado L 66-82 13%     0 - 1 -2.9 -5.7 +4.2
  Nov 10, 2022 132   @ Loyola Marymount W 81-79 33%     1 - 1 +7.6 +2.8 +4.7
  Nov 17, 2022 8   @ Creighton L 51-80 5%     1 - 2 -8.5 -10.4 -0.1
  Nov 21, 2022 251   Weber St. W 72-65 70%     2 - 2 +2.6 +3.8 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2022 144   Wright St. W 70-65 48%     3 - 2 +6.7 -2.8 +9.4
  Nov 23, 2022 226   Abilene Christian W 76-65 67%     4 - 2 +7.5 +3.8 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2022 160   @ California Baptist L 60-65 41%     4 - 3 -1.6 -5.9 +4.1
  Dec 11, 2022 335   @ Idaho W 74-64 83%    
  Dec 14, 2022 50   @ Oregon L 64-76 14%    
  Dec 20, 2022 179   San Diego W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 22, 2022 110   Portland L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 29, 2022 264   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-56 80%    
  Dec 31, 2022 165   @ Long Beach St. L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 05, 2023 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 299   Cal St. Northridge W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 11, 2023 283   @ UC San Diego W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 164   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-67 41%    
  Jan 16, 2023 285   Cal Poly W 69-59 83%    
  Jan 19, 2023 161   @ UC Davis L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 143   Hawaii W 64-62 59%    
  Jan 28, 2023 283   UC San Diego W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 02, 2023 264   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 62-59 62%    
  Feb 04, 2023 211   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 09, 2023 161   UC Davis W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 49   @ UC Irvine L 58-70 15%    
  Feb 15, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 164   UC Santa Barbara W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 20, 2023 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 24, 2023 143   @ Hawaii L 61-65 37%    
  Mar 02, 2023 49   UC Irvine L 61-67 30%    
  Mar 04, 2023 285   @ Cal Poly W 66-62 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.5 5.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.4 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.9 1.0 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.6 8.7 10.8 13.1 13.5 12.7 10.8 7.9 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 87.1% 1.0    0.8 0.2
17-3 63.7% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 39.8% 2.0    1.0 0.9 0.1
15-5 17.0% 1.3    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 72.4% 44.8% 27.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
19-1 0.3% 57.1% 42.2% 14.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 25.8%
18-2 1.1% 29.3% 25.9% 3.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 4.6%
17-3 2.6% 21.8% 20.6% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0 1.6%
16-4 5.1% 16.5% 16.4% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.3 0.2%
15-5 7.9% 13.6% 13.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 6.8
14-6 10.8% 9.9% 9.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.7
13-7 12.7% 8.2% 8.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.7
12-8 13.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.7
11-9 13.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.4
10-10 10.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.4
9-11 8.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.6
8-12 5.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-14 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 7.3% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.3 0.6 92.6 0.2%