Ohio
Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#157
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#226
Pace68.2#194
Improvement-0.3#274

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#127
First Shot+0.5#148
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#112
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#92
Freethrows-1.0#242
Improvement-0.1#210

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#201
First Shot+1.0#148
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#291
Layups/Dunks+0.4#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
Freethrows+0.0#171
Improvement-0.2#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 9.1% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 71.7% 87.2% 66.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 85.0% 74.1%
Conference Champion 6.2% 9.0% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.6% 1.7%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round6.0% 8.8% 5.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 23.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 54 - 11
Quad 412 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 140   @ Belmont L 69-70 34%     0 - 1 +4.0 -2.6 +6.6
  Nov 12, 2022 202   Cleveland St. W 81-70 70%     1 - 1 +6.3 +14.6 -7.3
  Nov 16, 2022 197   @ Detroit Mercy L 74-88 47%     1 - 2 -12.6 -5.3 -6.9
  Nov 20, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 66-70 OT 15%     1 - 3 +7.9 -4.0 +12.0
  Nov 25, 2022 356   Eastern Illinois W 78-67 95%     2 - 3 -6.9 +1.4 -7.8
  Nov 27, 2022 355   Alabama St. W 72-58 95%     3 - 3 -3.8 -2.0 -0.7
  Dec 03, 2022 94   @ Marshall L 72-80 24%    
  Dec 11, 2022 139   @ Youngstown St. L 74-78 34%    
  Dec 14, 2022 67   Florida L 72-79 25%    
  Dec 17, 2022 203   Stetson W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 21, 2022 176   @ Delaware L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 30, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 82-63 96%    
  Jan 03, 2023 190   @ Buffalo L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 07, 2023 271   @ Bowling Green W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 10, 2023 186   Ball St. W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 54   Kent St. L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 17, 2023 102   @ Toledo L 77-84 26%    
  Jan 21, 2023 244   Central Michigan W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 24, 2023 312   Western Michigan W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 28, 2023 137   @ Akron L 62-67 34%    
  Jan 31, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 04, 2023 286   Miami (OH) W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 07, 2023 266   @ Northern Illinois W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 137   Akron W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 14, 2023 190   Buffalo W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 18, 2023 244   @ Central Michigan W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 21, 2023 266   Northern Illinois W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 286   @ Miami (OH) W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 28, 2023 54   @ Kent St. L 65-77 15%    
  Mar 03, 2023 271   Bowling Green W 79-70 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.7 3.8 1.5 0.2 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.4 7.2 4.7 1.3 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 5.0 7.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 17.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.7 2.0 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.2 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.4 12.0 13.7 14.8 13.3 10.5 6.8 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 87.5% 1.4    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 55.1% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.1
14-4 24.9% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 58.5% 43.9% 14.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.1%
17-1 0.4% 33.3% 29.3% 4.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.7%
16-2 1.7% 25.1% 24.3% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.0%
15-3 3.5% 20.6% 20.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.8
14-4 6.8% 13.6% 13.6% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9
13-5 10.5% 10.6% 10.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 9.4
12-6 13.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 12.3
11-7 14.8% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 14.1
10-8 13.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 13.2
9-9 12.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.6
8-10 9.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.3
7-11 6.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.7 1.2 93.7 0.0%