Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#141
Pace64.3#293
Improvement+0.0#151

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#69
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#15
Layup/Dunks-8.9#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#74
Freethrows+2.0#78
Improvement-0.1#247

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#297
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#352
Layups/Dunks+4.3#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#278
Freethrows+0.5#157
Improvement+0.1#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 20.9% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 78.2% 89.2% 70.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 97.7% 89.0%
Conference Champion 28.4% 42.5% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.3% 2.2%
First Round15.5% 20.4% 12.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 412 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 146   @ Boston College L 66-70 32%     0 - 1 +0.5 -0.5 +0.9
  Nov 16, 2022 152   Ohio W 88-74 56%     1 - 1 +11.9 +10.7 +0.9
  Nov 19, 2022 65   @ Florida Atlantic L 55-76 14%     1 - 2 -9.8 -9.0 -1.9
  Nov 21, 2022 109   Bryant L 88-98 33%     1 - 3 -5.9 +18.7 -25.2
  Nov 23, 2022 122   Charlotte W 70-49 47%     2 - 3 +21.4 +13.1 +12.6
  Nov 25, 2022 60   @ Washington St. L 54-96 13%     2 - 4 -30.4 -8.0 -26.5
  Dec 01, 2022 216   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-66 48%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +9.2 -2.2 +10.5
  Dec 03, 2022 191   @ Cleveland St. L 65-67 41%    
  Dec 07, 2022 168   @ Tulsa L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 10, 2022 122   @ Charlotte L 61-68 26%    
  Dec 18, 2022 269   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 21, 2022 89   @ Cincinnati L 70-79 20%    
  Dec 29, 2022 362   Green Bay W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 31, 2022 226   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 06, 2023 186   @ Wright St. L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 08, 2023 222   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 12, 2023 147   Youngstown St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 14, 2023 249   Robert Morris W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 78-65 89%    
  Jan 23, 2023 307   Oakland W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 27, 2023 249   @ Robert Morris W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 29, 2023 147   @ Youngstown St. L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 02, 2023 191   Cleveland St. W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 216   Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 09, 2023 226   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 11, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 17, 2023 307   @ Oakland W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 19, 2023 359   IUPUI W 81-62 96%    
  Feb 23, 2023 222   Northern Kentucky W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 186   Wright St. W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 6.1 8.0 6.7 3.7 1.3 0.2 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.2 6.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.7 5.2 0.9 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.4 4.4 0.6 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 12.0 14.5 15.3 13.3 10.3 7.1 3.7 1.3 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
18-2 99.5% 3.7    3.5 0.2
17-3 94.5% 6.7    5.8 0.9 0.0
16-4 77.1% 8.0    5.4 2.4 0.2
15-5 46.1% 6.1    2.3 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.7% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 18.8 7.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 57.5% 52.5% 5.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.5%
19-1 1.3% 53.7% 53.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6
18-2 3.7% 42.7% 42.7% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1
17-3 7.1% 32.8% 32.8% 14.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 4.8
16-4 10.3% 28.4% 28.4% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 7.4
15-5 13.3% 19.9% 19.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 10.6
14-6 15.3% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 12.9
13-7 14.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 12.6
12-8 12.0% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 11.0
11-9 9.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.6
10-10 6.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 5.8
9-11 4.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 3.9
8-12 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.8 5.7 3.6 83.6 0.0%