Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#38
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#121
Pace70.0#144
Improvement+0.3#17

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#125
Layup/Dunks+3.5#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#237
Freethrows+1.5#100
Improvement+0.2#46

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#33
First Shot+6.4#34
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#129
Layups/Dunks+3.7#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#109
Freethrows-0.8#226
Improvement+0.2#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.5% 4.6% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 11.3% 14.3% 5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.1% 46.8% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.0% 43.6% 23.5%
Average Seed 8.0 7.8 8.8
.500 or above 53.3% 61.7% 35.6%
.500 or above in Conference 32.9% 36.6% 25.1%
Conference Champion 2.3% 2.8% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 19.7% 17.0% 25.4%
First Four5.5% 5.8% 4.8%
First Round37.8% 44.3% 24.1%
Second Round20.6% 24.7% 11.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 9.2% 3.9%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.6% 1.4%
Final Four1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 11
Quad 25 - 39 - 14
Quad 32 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 292   Texas Arlington W 77-66 96%     1 - 0 +1.1 -3.3 +3.6
  Nov 10, 2022 117   Southern Illinois L 60-61 83%     1 - 1 -0.3 -6.0 +5.7
  Nov 13, 2022 307   @ Oakland W 91-62 92%     2 - 1 +23.7 +7.5 +15.3
  Nov 18, 2022 75   Central Florida L 56-60 OT 62%     2 - 2 +3.4 -12.1 +15.7
  Nov 20, 2022 116   DePaul W 82-78 75%     3 - 2 +7.7 +5.4 +2.1
  Nov 25, 2022 168   Tulsa W 82-56 89%     4 - 2 +22.9 +2.9 +18.7
  Nov 27, 2022 266   Prairie View W 78-53 95%     5 - 2 +16.9 +9.4 +10.1
  Dec 01, 2022 2   @ Connecticut L 64-74 12%     5 - 3 +13.3 +4.7 +8.2
  Dec 06, 2022 59   Sam Houston St. W 65-60 68%    
  Dec 11, 2022 58   Virginia Tech W 67-65 57%    
  Dec 17, 2022 94   @ Wichita St. W 65-63 60%    
  Dec 20, 2022 248   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 31, 2022 17   @ Kansas L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 02, 2023 14   West Virginia L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 07, 2023 4   Texas L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 10, 2023 45   @ Kansas St. L 67-69 40%    
  Jan 14, 2023 20   @ Baylor L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 18, 2023 40   Oklahoma W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 65-63 59%    
  Jan 24, 2023 4   @ Texas L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 28, 2023 64   Mississippi W 69-64 69%    
  Feb 01, 2023 40   @ Oklahoma L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 52   TCU W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 08, 2023 27   Texas Tech W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 14, 2023 17   Kansas L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 18, 2023 52   @ TCU L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 20, 2023 14   @ West Virginia L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 25, 2023 45   Kansas St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 27, 2023 20   Baylor L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 04, 2023 27   @ Texas Tech L 62-68 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.2 2.9 1.2 0.2 6.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.8 4.1 1.5 0.2 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 2.1 0.2 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.3 2.4 0.3 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.8 3.2 0.3 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.3 3.6 0.4 14.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.6 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.5 7.9 10.8 13.1 14.4 13.6 11.4 8.8 6.0 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 88.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 70.7% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.1% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.9% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.0% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.5% 99.9% 8.6% 91.3% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 6.0% 99.0% 9.7% 89.4% 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-8 8.8% 95.1% 7.0% 88.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 94.7%
9-9 11.4% 81.5% 5.8% 75.7% 8.8 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 80.3%
8-10 13.6% 47.9% 5.0% 42.9% 10.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 45.1%
7-11 14.4% 15.2% 4.3% 10.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 11.4%
6-12 13.1% 4.2% 3.3% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.6 0.9%
5-13 10.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.5
4-14 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.7
3-15 4.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.5
2-16 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-18 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 40.1% 4.9% 35.2% 8.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.5 5.9 4.7 4.4 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 59.9 37.0%