IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.4	#166
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.4	#345
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.9	#213

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.3	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.8%	3.4%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.9%	1.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.7	11.5	13.1

.500 or above	50.2%	58.6%	29.8%
.500 or above in Conference	21.4%	25.0%	12.8%
Conference Champion	1.2%	1.6%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	29.2%	25.1%	39.2%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.3%
First Round	2.6%	3.1%	1.2%
Second Round	0.7%	1.0%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	2 - 5	2 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 5	6 - 13
Quad 4	9 - 2	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	211	Portland St.	W	74-68	71%
Nov 10, 2023	359	@ LIU Brooklyn	W	76-64	87%
Nov 12, 2023	194	@ Delaware	L	65-66	45%
Nov 16, 2023	356	Lindenwood	W	75-58	94%
Nov 17, 2023	302	William & Mary	W	69-58	84%
Nov 19, 2023	296	Nebraska Omaha	W	73-62	82%
Nov 22, 2023	351	VMI	W	74-58	92%
Nov 26, 2023	304	@ South Dakota	W	68-63	68%
Dec 03, 2023	174	@ Portland	L	69-71	42%
Dec 09, 2023	169	Eastern Washington	W	70-67	61%
Dec 16, 2023	200	Texas Arlington	W	65-63	56%
Dec 21, 2023	251	Northern Colorado	W	73-65	76%
Jan 02, 2024	83	Utah St.	L	66-69	40%
Jan 09, 2024	79	@ Nevada	L	60-69	22%
Jan 13, 2024	147	San Jose St.	W	62-60	57%
Jan 16, 2024	71	@ Colorado St.	L	61-71	20%
Jan 20, 2024	55	New Mexico	L	69-75	32%
Jan 23, 2024	91	@ UNLV	L	64-72	25%
Jan 27, 2024	111	@ Fresno St.	L	58-64	30%
Jan 30, 2024	163	Wyoming	W	66-63	60%
Feb 03, 2024	54	@ Boise St.	L	58-70	16%
Feb 06, 2024	31	San Diego St.	L	58-67	24%
Feb 10, 2024	111	Fresno St.	L	60-61	49%
Feb 13, 2024	147	@ San Jose St.	L	59-63	38%
Feb 21, 2024	91	UNLV	L	67-69	43%
Feb 24, 2024	55	@ New Mexico	L	66-78	17%
Feb 27, 2024	54	Boise St.	L	61-67	32%
Mar 01, 2024	83	@ Utah St.	L	63-72	23%
Mar 05, 2024	163	@ Wyoming	L	63-66	40%
Mar 09, 2024	71	Colorado St.	L	64-68	37%
Projected Record						15 - 15	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0				2.2	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	1.4	1.1	0.3	0.0						3.5	3rd
4th									0.1	0.7	2.1	1.5	0.3	0.0							4.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.9	2.8	2.2	0.4	0.0								6.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.9	3.5	2.9	0.6	0.0									7.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.9	3.9	3.8	0.8	0.0										9.5	7th
8th					0.1	1.4	4.5	4.4	1.2	0.1	0.0										11.7	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	2.3	5.4	4.8	1.5	0.1												14.4	9th
10th		0.1	1.2	4.0	6.4	4.7	1.3	0.1													17.7	10th
11th	1.4	4.0	5.8	5.7	3.1	0.8	0.1														20.8	11th

Total	1.4	4.1	7.0	10.0	11.9	12.3	11.6	10.8	9.6	7.3	5.6	3.8	2.2	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	96.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	76.8%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	53.1%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	20.8%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2		0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%							0.0			0.0
17-1	0.1%		100.0%	33.7%	66.3%	3.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0										100.0%
16-2	0.1%		92.1%	29.1%	63.0%	7.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		88.8%
15-3	0.4%		62.4%	16.7%	45.7%	9.0				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.1		54.9%
14-4	0.8%		43.0%	14.8%	28.2%	10.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.5		33.1%
13-5	1.3%		27.6%	12.0%	15.6%	10.6							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.0		17.7%
12-6	2.2%		11.0%	6.7%	4.3%	11.4										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				2.0		4.6%
11-7	3.8%		6.5%	5.4%	1.1%	11.8											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			3.5		1.1%
10-8	5.6%		4.3%	4.1%	0.2%	12.3											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		5.3		0.2%
9-9	7.3%		3.4%	3.4%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.0
8-10	9.6%		2.7%	2.7%		13.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.3
7-11	10.8%		1.5%	1.5%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.6
6-12	11.6%		0.9%	0.9%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.5
5-13	12.3%		1.0%	1.0%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	12.2
4-14	11.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	11.8
3-15	10.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																0.0	0.0	10.0
2-16	7.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.0
1-17	4.1%																							4.1
0-18	1.4%																							1.4

Total	100%		2.8%	2.0%	0.9%	11.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	97.2		0.9%