Preseason Rankings
Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#183
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 22.3% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 2.1% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.3 12.0 13.1
.500 or above 83.5% 89.9% 71.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 93.4% 86.8%
Conference Champion 24.0% 28.0% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round18.7% 21.8% 12.9%
Second Round4.7% 5.9% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 36 - 8
Quad 412 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 130   Princeton W 74-70 65%    
  Nov 14, 2023 238   @ George Washington W 78-73 66%    
  Nov 20, 2023 216   Buffalo W 81-75 71%    
  Nov 30, 2023 145   South Florida W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 06, 2023 148   @ Iona L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 09, 2023 102   @ Saint Louis L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 12, 2023 3   @ Duke L 61-78 7%    
  Dec 16, 2023 248   Norfolk St. W 76-65 84%    
  Dec 21, 2023 91   @ UNLV L 72-77 34%    
  Dec 30, 2023 44   @ St. John's L 75-85 21%    
  Jan 04, 2024 80   College of Charleston W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 06, 2024 194   Delaware W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 11, 2024 228   @ Northeastern W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 13, 2024 294   @ Campbell W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 18, 2024 312   Hampton W 82-67 89%    
  Jan 22, 2024 255   @ Stony Brook W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 25, 2024 302   William & Mary W 76-62 88%    
  Jan 27, 2024 311   @ Monmouth W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 01, 2024 255   Stony Brook W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 03, 2024 158   Towson W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 08, 2024 312   @ Hampton W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 10, 2024 352   @ N.C. A&T W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 15, 2024 125   @ Drexel L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 228   Northeastern W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 22, 2024 125   Drexel W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 309   Elon W 77-62 89%    
  Feb 29, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 02, 2024 80   @ College of Charleston L 74-80 31%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.4 7.5 5.1 1.6 24.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.2 7.3 4.8 1.2 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 6.2 3.1 0.4 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.1 1.8 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.3 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.9 5.8 8.3 10.3 12.9 13.2 13.5 11.6 8.7 5.1 1.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.5% 5.1    4.7 0.3
16-2 85.8% 7.5    5.4 2.0 0.1
15-3 55.3% 6.4    3.0 2.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 21.7% 2.9    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 15.5 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 77.5% 59.0% 18.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 45.1%
17-1 5.1% 57.2% 48.2% 9.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 17.4%
16-2 8.7% 41.0% 37.3% 3.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 5.8%
15-3 11.6% 29.5% 28.4% 1.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.2 1.5%
14-4 13.5% 22.0% 21.9% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.5 0.1%
13-5 13.2% 14.7% 14.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.3
12-6 12.9% 11.7% 11.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 11.4
11-7 10.3% 8.2% 8.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.5
10-8 8.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.9
9-9 5.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
8-10 3.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8
7-11 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.2% 18.0% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 3.0 5.2 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.7 80.8 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 1.2 29.3 9.8 58.5 1.2