Preseason Rankings
San Jose St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.2#350
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.9% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.6% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.1 10.7 12.1
.500 or above 38.5% 51.9% 25.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.3% 33.4% 19.5%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.7% 17.7% 29.3%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
First Round3.7% 5.4% 2.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 35 - 57 - 14
Quad 45 - 212 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 97   UC Irvine L 66-67 49%    
  Nov 12, 2023 41   @ Texas Tech L 59-71 12%    
  Nov 17, 2023 168   Abilene Christian W 68-67 54%    
  Nov 27, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 70-64 70%    
  Nov 29, 2023 334   @ Cal Poly W 64-55 79%    
  Dec 02, 2023 181   @ Montana L 63-64 46%    
  Dec 04, 2023 201   @ North Dakota St. W 67-66 50%    
  Dec 09, 2023 299   New Orleans W 77-65 85%    
  Dec 17, 2023 181   Montana W 66-61 66%    
  Dec 20, 2023 144   Santa Clara W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 02, 2024 163   @ Wyoming L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 05, 2024 54   Boise St. L 61-66 34%    
  Jan 09, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 58-66 25%    
  Jan 13, 2024 166   @ Air Force L 60-62 43%    
  Jan 16, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 24, 2024 55   New Mexico L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 91   UNLV L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 30, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 63-71 26%    
  Feb 02, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 61-69 24%    
  Feb 06, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 09, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 62-71 23%    
  Feb 13, 2024 166   Air Force W 63-59 62%    
  Feb 17, 2024 163   Wyoming W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 20, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 58-69 19%    
  Feb 23, 2024 79   Nevada L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 27, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 55-69 13%    
  Mar 02, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 65-72 28%    
  Mar 06, 2024 83   Utah St. L 66-68 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.0 1.0 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.6 1.3 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 4.9 1.6 0.1 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.8 4.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.0 10th
11th 0.8 2.9 4.6 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 16.3 11th
Total 0.8 3.0 5.6 8.4 10.7 11.9 12.1 11.3 10.1 8.3 6.5 4.6 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 90.1% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 84.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 98.9% 34.1% 64.8% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
16-2 0.2% 93.0% 26.2% 66.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.5%
15-3 0.5% 76.3% 16.9% 59.4% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.4%
14-4 1.0% 48.7% 15.3% 33.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 39.5%
13-5 2.0% 33.4% 10.7% 22.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 25.4%
12-6 3.1% 20.7% 11.6% 9.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 10.3%
11-7 4.6% 8.3% 6.7% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.2 1.7%
10-8 6.5% 5.0% 4.8% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.2%
9-9 8.3% 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.1%
8-10 10.1% 2.1% 2.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
7-11 11.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
6-12 12.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.0
5-13 11.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
4-14 10.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-15 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.3
2-16 5.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
1-17 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.0
0-18 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
Total 100% 4.1% 2.5% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 95.9 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%