IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.1	#308
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.6	#10
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.3	#276

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.8	#318

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	11.2%	5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.0	15.5

.500 or above	36.2%	66.0%	34.3%
.500 or above in Conference	53.2%	71.6%	52.0%
Conference Champion	7.9%	15.9%	7.4%
Last Place in Conference	9.3%	3.1%	9.7%

First Four	2.4%	2.5%	2.4%
First Round	4.6%	9.8%	4.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 9	12 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	93	@ Grand Canyon	L	67-83	6%
Nov 10, 2023	88	@ Butler	L	65-82	6%
Nov 15, 2023	329	Evansville	W	80-75	66%
Nov 20, 2023	336	Central Arkansas	W	88-82	70%
Nov 25, 2023	329	Evansville	W	79-77	56%
Nov 26, 2023	197	@ Chattanooga	L	74-84	19%
Nov 30, 2023	286	@ UMKC	L	68-72	35%
Dec 09, 2023	305	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	77-80	39%
Dec 21, 2023	209	@ Illinois St.	L	70-79	22%
Dec 29, 2023	344	Southern Indiana	W	84-77	72%
Dec 31, 2023	220	Morehead St.	L	70-72	42%
Jan 04, 2024	317	@ Western Illinois	L	75-77	42%
Jan 11, 2024	356	Lindenwood	W	82-73	77%
Jan 13, 2024	289	@ Tennessee Tech	L	75-79	36%
Jan 20, 2024	259	SIU Edwardsville	W	79-78	50%
Jan 25, 2024	282	@ Tennessee Martin	L	82-86	35%
Jan 27, 2024	275	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	81-86	34%
Jan 30, 2024	356	@ Lindenwood	W	79-76	58%
Feb 03, 2024	317	Western Illinois	W	78-74	62%
Feb 08, 2024	289	Tennessee Tech	W	78-76	56%
Feb 10, 2024	262	Tennessee St.	W	83-82	51%
Feb 15, 2024	332	@ Eastern Illinois	L	76-77	48%
Feb 17, 2024	259	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	76-82	31%
Feb 22, 2024	275	Arkansas Little Rock	W	84-83	53%
Feb 24, 2024	282	Tennessee Martin	W	85-83	55%
Feb 29, 2024	220	@ Morehead St.	L	67-75	25%
Mar 02, 2024	344	@ Southern Indiana	W	81-80	51%
Projected Record						12 - 15	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	1.5	2.0	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1		7.9	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	2.7	3.0	1.7	0.4	0.1				8.7	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.1	3.5	3.3	1.3	0.2	0.0					9.5	3rd
4th									0.1	1.1	3.9	4.0	1.1	0.1							10.3	4th
5th								0.1	1.0	4.1	4.0	1.1	0.1								10.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.8	3.8	4.4	1.3	0.1	0.0								10.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.8	3.7	4.3	1.5	0.1										10.3	7th
8th					0.1	0.8	3.3	4.2	1.6	0.1											10.1	8th
9th				0.1	1.1	2.9	3.4	1.3	0.1	0.0											8.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	1.2	2.6	2.6	0.9	0.1													7.7	10th
11th	0.2	0.6	1.5	1.7	1.2	0.5	0.1														5.6	11th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.7	3.0	5.0	6.8	8.5	10.3	10.8	11.2	10.5	9.5	7.7	5.9	3.9	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	94.5%	1.2		1.1	0.1	0.0
15-3	82.2%	2.1		1.5	0.5	0.0
14-4	50.4%	2.0		1.0	0.8	0.1	0.0
13-5	25.5%	1.5		0.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	7.0%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.9%	7.9		4.7	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		71.4%	71.4%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.5%		61.3%	61.3%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2
16-2	1.2%		45.0%	45.0%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.7
15-3	2.5%		33.5%	33.5%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	1.7
14-4	3.9%		23.7%	23.7%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	3.0
13-5	5.9%		15.8%	15.8%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.7	5.0
12-6	7.7%		9.9%	9.9%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.7	7.0
11-7	9.5%		6.1%	6.1%		15.9																0.0	0.5	8.9
10-8	10.5%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.2
9-9	11.2%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.3	11.0
8-10	10.8%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	10.7
7-11	10.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
6-12	8.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
5-13	6.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
4-14	5.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
3-15	3.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
2-16	1.7%																							1.7
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.8%	5.8%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.4	3.7	94.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%