Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#41
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#166
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 5.3% 5.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 13.9% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 23.4% 23.9% 6.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.5% 49.3% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.8% 46.5% 17.8%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.9
.500 or above 75.6% 76.5% 41.9%
.500 or above in Conference 49.0% 49.6% 25.5%
Conference Champion 4.5% 4.6% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 8.4% 21.6%
First Four4.6% 4.7% 2.7%
First Round46.1% 46.9% 17.7%
Second Round29.6% 30.1% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen14.0% 14.3% 4.0%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.5% 1.1%
Final Four2.9% 2.9% 0.2%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 24 - 38 - 10
Quad 34 - 112 - 11
Quad 46 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 291   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 12, 2023 147   San Jose St. W 71-59 88%    
  Nov 16, 2023 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 22, 2023 20   Villanova L 66-68 42%    
  Nov 30, 2023 88   @ Butler W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 06, 2023 296   Nebraska Omaha W 83-62 97%    
  Dec 12, 2023 175   Oral Roberts W 83-69 89%    
  Dec 16, 2023 87   Vanderbilt W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 21, 2023 200   Texas Arlington W 76-61 90%    
  Dec 28, 2023 117   Sam Houston St. W 71-60 82%    
  Jan 01, 2024 223   North Alabama W 81-64 92%    
  Jan 06, 2024 15   @ Texas L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 09, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 17, 2024 4   @ Houston L 61-70 22%    
  Jan 20, 2024 50   BYU W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 30, 2024 24   @ TCU L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 03, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 06, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 10, 2024 81   Central Florida W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 12, 2024 1   Kansas L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 20, 2024 24   TCU W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 81   @ Central Florida W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 27, 2024 15   Texas L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 02, 2024 63   @ West Virginia L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 05, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 09, 2024 14   Baylor L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.5 1.4 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.2 0.2 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.6 1.4 0.1 7.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 1.7 0.1 7.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.3 10.7 11.4 11.3 10.4 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.8% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 89.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 65.7% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.9% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.0% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.3% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.2% 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 3.9 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 6.9% 98.6% 9.3% 89.4% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
11-7 8.4% 95.3% 7.0% 88.3% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.0%
10-8 10.4% 85.4% 5.3% 80.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 84.6%
9-9 11.3% 64.6% 4.4% 60.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.1 4.0 62.9%
8-10 11.4% 33.5% 3.6% 29.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 30.9%
7-11 10.7% 11.3% 2.7% 8.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 8.9%
6-12 9.3% 3.2% 2.2% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0 1.0%
5-13 7.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.5 0.1%
4-14 5.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 48.5% 5.0% 43.5% 6.6 2.3 2.9 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7 3.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 51.5 45.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.8 1.2