Preseason Rankings
Washington
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#74
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.7#87
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.9% 4.3% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 9.2% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.8% 29.8% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.5% 26.4% 9.4%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 9.2
.500 or above 59.3% 62.5% 32.9%
.500 or above in Conference 42.8% 44.9% 25.6%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 9.7% 19.6%
First Four4.2% 4.4% 2.5%
First Round25.6% 27.5% 9.8%
Second Round13.6% 14.7% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.3% 0.9%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 89.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 8
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 35 - 211 - 14
Quad 44 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 215   Bellarmine W 74-61 89%    
  Nov 09, 2023 183   Northern Kentucky W 71-60 85%    
  Nov 12, 2023 79   Nevada W 73-69 63%    
  Nov 18, 2023 43   Xavier L 76-79 39%    
  Nov 28, 2023 241   UC San Diego W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 02, 2023 71   Colorado St. L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 05, 2023 225   Montana St. W 77-63 89%    
  Dec 09, 2023 10   Gonzaga L 76-81 33%    
  Dec 17, 2023 126   @ Seattle W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 21, 2023 169   Eastern Washington W 81-71 81%    
  Dec 29, 2023 33   @ Colorado L 70-78 26%    
  Dec 31, 2023 62   @ Utah L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 04, 2024 35   Oregon L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 06, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 11, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 14, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 18, 2024 105   @ California W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 20, 2024 49   @ Stanford L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 24, 2024 33   Colorado L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 62   Utah W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 03, 2024 86   Washington St. W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 08, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 10, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 15, 2024 49   Stanford W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 17, 2024 105   California W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 22, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 75-86 18%    
  Feb 29, 2024 19   UCLA L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 02, 2024 18   USC L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 07, 2024 86   @ Washington St. L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.4 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.8 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.3 7.0 8.3 10.0 10.1 10.8 10.0 8.7 7.6 5.9 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 88.3% 0.3    0.3 0.1
17-3 77.4% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 54.0% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
15-5 24.8% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 60.0% 40.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 99.9% 16.0% 83.9% 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 1.8% 99.5% 11.7% 87.8% 4.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 3.0% 98.1% 15.5% 82.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
14-6 4.2% 92.5% 10.4% 82.2% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 91.7%
13-7 5.9% 83.8% 8.9% 75.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.0 82.2%
12-8 7.6% 66.5% 7.7% 58.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 63.8%
11-9 8.7% 42.1% 5.4% 36.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 38.7%
10-10 10.0% 23.4% 4.0% 19.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 20.2%
9-11 10.8% 7.5% 2.8% 4.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 4.8%
8-12 10.1% 2.9% 2.1% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.8%
7-13 10.0% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.1%
6-14 8.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.2
5-15 7.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
4-16 5.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-18 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-19 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 27.8% 4.4% 23.4% 7.9 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 72.2 24.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 42.3 57.7