Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#302
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#290
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#294
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#287
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.4
.500 or above 20.0% 28.5% 10.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.0% 33.3% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 10.2% 19.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 49 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 261   American W 64-63 53%    
  Nov 11, 2023 238   @ George Washington L 69-76 27%    
  Nov 16, 2023 296   Nebraska Omaha L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 17, 2023 166   @ Air Force L 58-69 16%    
  Nov 19, 2023 356   Lindenwood W 72-66 71%    
  Nov 25, 2023 292   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-69 59%    
  Nov 28, 2023 248   @ Norfolk St. L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 02, 2023 129   @ Richmond L 59-72 13%    
  Dec 06, 2023 180   Old Dominion L 62-66 36%    
  Dec 21, 2023 191   @ Pepperdine L 70-80 20%    
  Dec 30, 2023 277   @ Navy L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 04, 2024 309   Elon W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 125   Drexel L 60-67 27%    
  Jan 11, 2024 312   @ Hampton L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 13, 2024 255   Stony Brook W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 18, 2024 294   Campbell W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 20, 2024 352   @ N.C. A&T W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 25, 2024 112   @ Hofstra L 62-76 12%    
  Jan 27, 2024 228   @ Northeastern L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 01, 2024 194   Delaware L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 03, 2024 80   College of Charleston L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 08, 2024 311   @ Monmouth L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 10, 2024 194   @ Delaware L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2024 158   Towson L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 19, 2024 80   @ College of Charleston L 65-82 8%    
  Feb 22, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 24, 2024 255   @ Stony Brook L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 29, 2024 309   @ Elon L 66-68 42%    
  Mar 02, 2024 312   Hampton W 73-69 62%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.0 0.2 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 11.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.3 0.9 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.5 1.3 0.1 11.4 12th
13th 0.3 1.9 4.1 3.5 1.2 0.1 11.1 13th
14th 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.7 14th
Total 0.7 2.3 5.1 7.6 9.6 12.2 12.3 12.1 11.1 8.9 6.9 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 55.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 18.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 32.5% 22.1% 10.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3%
16-2 0.1% 12.0% 12.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.9% 7.9% 7.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 1.8% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
12-6 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
11-7 4.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
10-8 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
9-9 8.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.8
8-10 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
5-13 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-15 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-16 5.1% 5.1
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%