Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
165 Northern Colorado 29.3%   15   15 - 7 10 - 2 19 - 9 14 - 4 +0.2      +2.5 109 -2.2 233 71.8 86 +3.1 126 +4.7 2
189 Montana 19.7%   14 - 8 10 - 2 18 - 10 14 - 4 -1.6      +2.1 115 -3.7 279 67.5 199 +3.5 119 +4.9 1
192 Montana St. 14.1%   9 - 15 5 - 7 13 - 17 9 - 9 -1.8      -1.2 210 -0.6 188 65.9 238 -4.8 243 -5.8 6
213 Portland St. 11.8%   11 - 10 6 - 5 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.0      -3.1 259 +0.2 168 71.3 98 -2.4 207 -2.8 3
231 Idaho St. 9.0%   8 - 11 6 - 5 12 - 14 10 - 8 -3.8      -1.5 215 -2.3 236 63.9 299 -5.0 247 -3.5 4
251 Northern Arizona 4.8%   10 - 11 5 - 7 13 - 14 8 - 10 -5.1      -1.5 217 -3.6 277 67.8 194 -4.8 244 -6.1 7
253 Eastern Washington 4.6%   7 - 16 5 - 7 10 - 19 8 - 10 -5.2      -2.7 245 -2.6 245 69.6 140 -6.5 278 -6.4 8
263 Idaho 4.6%   9 - 14 6 - 6 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.7      +0.5 155 -6.2 339 65.8 243 -5.4 254 -4.9 5
291 Weber St. 1.8%   6 - 16 3 - 8 9 - 20 6 - 12 -7.1      -2.6 243 -4.5 315 64.9 273 -8.0 298 -10.1 9
335 Sacramento St. 0.3%   3 - 18 2 - 9 5 - 23 4 - 14 -10.9      -7.1 341 -3.8 283 63.4 307 -14.2 346 -12.6 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 1.3 68.7 30.4 0.9 0.1
Montana 1.5 53.5 44.5 1.8 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 4.8 0.0 0.4 22.0 25.5 22.9 15.8 8.7 3.8 0.9 0.0
Portland St. 3.7 1.1 6.1 50.0 21.2 11.3 6.2 2.9 1.1 0.2
Idaho St. 4.2 0.4 3.2 36.0 26.0 15.2 10.1 5.9 3.1 0.2
Northern Arizona 6.0 0.1 7.7 13.0 17.0 19.8 20.0 18.2 3.9 0.3
Eastern Washington 6.3 0.1 4.4 10.8 15.3 19.5 22.1 21.7 6.2 0.1
Idaho 5.6 0.0 0.4 10.4 18.8 20.4 19.8 17.0 11.2 2.2 0.0
Weber St. 8.5 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.8 17.8 56.1 10.9
Sacramento St. 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.2 20.4 75.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 14 - 4 0.2 1.5 7.9 19.1 31.5 28.2 11.6
Montana 14 - 4 0.3 2.7 10.8 25.5 32.0 22.3 6.5
Montana St. 9 - 9 0.2 2.2 8.8 22.3 31.6 26.5 8.5
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.3 2.6 10.1 20.2 26.9 24.3 12.8 2.9
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.7 5.1 15.9 25.5 27.5 17.7 6.6 1.0
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 2.4 10.9 23.6 30.0 22.0 9.4 1.8
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 2.7 12.9 27.9 30.8 18.4 6.6 0.8
Idaho 8 - 10 4.6 18.7 30.7 27.8 13.9 3.9 0.4
Weber St. 6 - 12 3.5 16.8 28.1 27.7 16.5 6.2 1.1 0.1
Sacramento St. 4 - 14 14.7 30.2 28.8 17.4 6.9 1.7 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 68.7% 45.9 22.1 0.6 0.0
Montana 53.5% 30.9 21.9 0.6 0.0
Montana St. 0.0% 0.0
Portland St. 1.1% 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0
Idaho St. 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington
Idaho 0.0% 0.0
Weber St.
Sacramento St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 15   0.0 1.0 6.4 13.4 8.1 0.4 70.7 0.0%
Montana 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 6.2 10.2 1.9 80.3 0.0%
Montana St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.6 9.9 85.9 0.0%
Portland St. 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 4.3 6.6 88.2 0.0%
Idaho St. 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 2.7 5.9 91.0 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.9 95.2 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 4.6 95.4 0.0%
Idaho 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.2 4.4 95.5 0.0%
Weber St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northern Colorado 29.3% 0.0% 29.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 19.7% 0.2% 19.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 14.1% 6.8% 11.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.8% 2.3% 10.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 9.0% 3.4% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.8% 2.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.6% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 4.6% 4.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.6% 0.9 10.4 89.6
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0