Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#253
Pace64.8#273
Improvement+2.1#87

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#169
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks-0.9#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#57
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#329
First Shot-5.3#335
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#182
Layups/Dunks-0.5#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
Freethrows-1.2#270
Improvement+2.1#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.7% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 10.6% 18.2% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.3% 68.6% 40.0%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.5% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.3% 5.0%
First Four3.8% 4.2% 3.4%
First Round4.4% 6.2% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 49 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 227   UC Davis L 75-79 56%     0 - 1 -10.4 +0.9 -11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 87   @ Washington St. L 67-90 10%     0 - 2 -13.7 -4.2 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 37   @ BYU L 71-95 4%     0 - 3 -9.2 +2.2 -10.9
  Nov 23, 2024 238   Southern Utah L 67-82 48%     0 - 4 -19.3 +7.1 -29.6
  Nov 24, 2024 291   @ San Diego L 61-68 50%     0 - 5 -11.8 -11.7 -0.1
  Nov 30, 2024 172   UC Riverside W 80-68 43%     1 - 5 +8.8 +14.4 -4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 224   @ UMKC W 82-77 35%     2 - 5 +4.1 +12.2 -8.0
  Dec 07, 2024 73   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 8%     2 - 6 -5.6 +0.0 -7.4
  Dec 15, 2024 81   UC San Diego L 56-80 19%     2 - 7 -19.4 -12.4 -8.1
  Dec 18, 2024 227   @ UC Davis L 66-74 36%     2 - 8 -9.2 -3.4 -5.7
  Dec 21, 2024 303   @ Pacific W 95-72 52%     3 - 8 +17.7 +24.0 -4.9
  Jan 02, 2025 177   Montana St. W 69-64 44%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +1.7 -4.7 +6.4
  Jan 04, 2025 225   Montana L 71-73 55%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -8.2 -4.1 -4.2
  Jan 09, 2025 334   @ Sacramento St. W 80-67 65%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +4.2 +17.1 -11.1
  Jan 11, 2025 228   @ Portland St. L 63-75 36%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -13.2 -4.3 -9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 259   Eastern Washington W 83-76 63%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -1.2 +8.5 -9.4
  Jan 20, 2025 225   @ Montana L 67-72 35%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -6.0 -1.5 -5.0
  Jan 23, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 262   Northern Arizona W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 236   @ Weber St. L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   @ Idaho St. L 68-72 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 228   Portland St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 334   Sacramento St. W 71-62 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 259   @ Eastern Washington L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 20, 2025 262   @ Northern Arizona L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 74-81 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 215   Idaho St. W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 236   Weber St. W 73-71 59%    
  Mar 03, 2025 177   @ Montana St. L 68-75 25%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 4.9 1.4 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.3 4.6 7.3 1.7 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 9.1 2.9 0.1 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 8.8 5.3 0.3 16.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.9 5.8 0.7 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.8 1.0 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.3 1.0 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.3 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 3.8 8.6 15.6 18.7 20.2 15.7 9.5 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 75.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 50.6% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.9% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.4% 16.2% 16.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-5 1.7% 13.9% 13.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-6 4.9% 14.7% 14.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 4.2
11-7 9.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.6 0.5 0.8 8.2
10-8 15.7% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2 14.5
9-9 20.2% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 1.3 18.8
8-10 18.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 18.2
7-11 15.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 15.2
6-12 8.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.5
5-13 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.8 94.1 0.0%