Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#122
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#227
Pace67.0#234
Improvement+1.5#83

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#132
First Shot+4.3#67
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#316
Layup/Dunks-3.3#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#6
Freethrows-2.9#322
Improvement-0.5#230

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#150
First Shot+0.9#144
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#207
Layups/Dunks-3.3#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#55
Freethrows-0.2#205
Improvement+2.0#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.5% 34.4% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 86.0% 88.3% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 96.0% 92.4%
Conference Champion 49.0% 50.4% 39.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 2.2%
First Round33.1% 34.1% 26.5%
Second Round3.3% 3.6% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 415 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 11%     0 - 1 +3.5 +5.2 -2.6
  Nov 09, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 27%     0 - 2 -11.4 +2.7 -14.2
  Nov 17, 2024 321   @ Denver L 78-79 78%     0 - 3 -7.0 -5.2 -1.6
  Nov 19, 2024 66   @ Northwestern L 69-72 18%     0 - 4 +9.0 +10.1 -1.4
  Nov 24, 2024 250   Southern Miss W 79-59 83%     1 - 4 +12.3 +0.4 +11.1
  Nov 26, 2024 178   Abilene Christian W 85-59 73%     2 - 4 +22.0 +17.4 +6.8
  Nov 30, 2024 155   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 69%     2 - 5 -5.7 -7.8 +2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 306   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 74%     3 - 5 +6.6 +6.6 +0.8
  Dec 07, 2024 292   UMKC W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 15, 2024 106   @ USC L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 18, 2024 175   @ UC Riverside W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 22, 2024 78   @ TCU L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 02, 2025 265   @ Idaho W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 180   Northern Colorado W 79-73 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Northern Arizona W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 16, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 210   @ Weber St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 20, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 82-72 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 190   @ Montana W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 320   Sacramento St. W 73-59 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 256   Portland St. W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 06, 2025 301   @ Northern Arizona W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 210   Weber St. W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   Montana W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 256   @ Portland St. W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 320   @ Sacramento St. W 70-62 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 265   Idaho W 77-66 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.9 11.7 12.3 9.2 5.0 1.4 49.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 6.8 7.0 4.1 1.0 0.1 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.0 10.5 13.4 15.2 15.9 13.3 9.3 5.0 1.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 5.0    5.0 0.0
16-2 98.8% 9.2    8.7 0.5
15-3 92.4% 12.3    10.5 1.8 0.0
14-4 73.5% 11.7    7.9 3.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 45.6% 6.9    3.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.3% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.0% 49.0 36.9 9.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 62.8% 62.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
17-1 5.0% 59.5% 59.5% 12.7 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.0
16-2 9.3% 52.2% 52.2% 13.1 0.0 1.1 2.4 1.2 0.2 4.4
15-3 13.3% 44.6% 44.6% 13.5 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.4
14-4 15.9% 38.3% 38.3% 13.9 0.2 1.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 9.8
13-5 15.2% 31.5% 31.5% 14.3 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.7 0.2 10.4
12-6 13.4% 26.5% 26.5% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.5 9.8
11-7 10.5% 22.2% 22.2% 15.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.7 8.2
10-8 7.0% 16.3% 16.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 5.9
9-9 4.5% 13.9% 13.9% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 3.9
8-10 2.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2
7-11 1.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.1
6-12 0.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.5% 33.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 9.0 10.3 7.6 2.8 66.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 9.7 19.4 43.5 14.5 3.2