Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
189 Montana 16.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 -1.9      -0.1 164 -1.8 230 67.6 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Northern Colorado 16.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -1.9      +0.5 149 -2.4 258 70.8 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Portland St. 13.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -3.0      -3.4 273 +0.3 152 70.2 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Montana St. 12.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.3      -2.0 227 -1.3 205 65.2 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Idaho 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -4.2      +0.1 160 -4.2 306 66.0 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 Eastern Washington 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 9 -4.7      -1.3 215 -3.4 285 67.6 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 Northern Arizona 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.4      -1.8 224 -3.6 290 66.6 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 Sacramento St. 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6.0      -3.7 280 -2.4 253 64.2 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 Weber St. 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.4      -3.4 275 -3.0 276 64.6 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 Idaho St. 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6.8      -4.4 298 -2.4 257 65.3 260 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana 4.0 21.7 15.8 13.5 11.1 9.3 8.2 7.1 5.8 4.5 3.0
Northern Colorado 4.0 21.9 15.8 13.4 10.6 9.6 8.2 6.9 5.8 4.6 3.1
Portland St. 4.5 16.0 14.0 12.4 11.2 10.3 9.5 8.4 7.4 6.3 4.4
Montana St. 4.6 15.0 13.4 12.5 11.2 10.6 9.5 8.7 7.6 6.6 5.0
Idaho 4.9 13.1 11.8 11.8 11.3 10.6 9.9 9.4 8.6 7.6 6.1
Eastern Washington 5.3 10.3 10.7 10.4 11.2 10.4 10.1 10.3 9.7 9.1 7.7
Northern Arizona 5.7 7.8 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.2 10.6 11.0 10.7 10.5 9.9
Sacramento St. 6.0 6.4 7.9 8.6 9.2 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.8 12.0 12.3
Weber St. 6.2 5.7 7.1 7.7 9.2 10.0 10.6 11.4 12.0 13.0 13.3
Idaho St. 6.5 4.7 6.1 6.8 8.3 9.1 10.2 11.3 12.9 14.6 15.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.0 6.6 8.6 9.8 10.7 10.8 11.2 9.5 7.9 6.1 4.0 1.8 0.6
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.4 9.6 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.7 8.2 6.1 4.0 2.1 0.6
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.7 7.6 9.9 10.7 10.7 10.5 9.9 8.2 6.5 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.3
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.7 8.5 9.6 10.9 11.0 10.3 9.7 8.0 5.9 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.3
Idaho 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.0 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.9 11.2 10.7 10.2 8.5 6.8 5.4 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.9 7.0 8.5 9.5 10.8 11.1 10.4 9.4 7.7 5.9 4.3 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.1
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.2 5.8 7.6 9.1 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.2 8.2 6.8 5.1 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.9 7.1 8.7 10.2 11.0 11.0 10.3 9.1 7.5 6.0 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Weber St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.5 5.3 7.4 9.3 10.3 11.2 11.2 10.2 8.7 7.0 5.3 3.9 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Idaho St. 7 - 11 0.6 1.9 3.9 6.4 9.0 10.3 11.0 11.2 10.4 9.5 8.3 6.2 4.6 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana 21.7% 15.1 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 21.9% 15.6 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 16.0% 10.7 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Montana St. 15.0% 9.9 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho 13.1% 8.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 10.3% 6.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 7.8% 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 6.4% 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 5.7% 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 4.4 4.0 2.7 83.6 0.0%
Northern Colorado 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.4 4.2 3.9 3.2 83.5 0.0%
Portland St. 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 86.9 0.0%
Montana St. 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.1 3.2 2.9 87.9 0.0%
Idaho 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 89.9 0.0%
Eastern Washington 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.9 91.5 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.8 92.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.3 94.0 0.0%
Weber St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 94.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 95.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana 16.4% 1.5% 16.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 16.5% 1.5% 16.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 13.1% 1.8% 13.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 12.1% 1.7% 12.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 10.1% 1.6% 10.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 8.5% 1.9% 8.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.5% 1.8% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 6.0% 1.5% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 5.2% 1.2% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 4.5% 1.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 94.0% 1.0 6.0 89.8 4.1
2nd Round 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0