Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Northern Colorado 20.7%   14   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +0.4      +1.4 130 -1.0 199 70.8 147 +4.7 103 0.0 1
169 Montana St. 14.5%   3 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -0.8      -1.2 203 +0.3 146 65.2 297 -4.0 233 0.0 1
170 Idaho St. 14.6%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.0      +0.8 139 -1.8 230 62.3 347 -1.8 188 0.0 1
171 Portland St. 14.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      -4.1 278 +3.0 89 70.2 160 -3.2 219 0.0 1
172 Idaho 14.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      +0.6 146 -1.7 224 65.6 281 +0.5 156 0.0 1
207 Montana 7.4%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -3.2      -0.7 181 -2.6 257 73.0 86 -4.4 237 0.0 1
225 Weber St. 6.2%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.9      -0.8 185 -3.1 283 70.6 149 -6.3 259 0.0 1
259 Eastern Washington 3.3%   1 - 11 0 - 0 8 - 22 7 - 11 -5.5      +0.4 149 -5.9 343 72.3 105 -14.0 343 0.0 1
278 Sacramento St. 2.6%   1 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -6.3      -3.9 274 -2.4 247 76.3 35 -10.3 317 0.0 1
288 Northern Arizona 2.2%   3 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -6.7      -4.5 291 -2.3 244 66.6 254 -6.6 267 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Dec 28 83 Colorado 81 152 Northern Colorado 86   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 1 169 Montana St. 74 152 Northern Colorado 72 57%   
Thu, Jan 1 171 Portland St. 72 225 Weber St. 73 51%   
Thu, Jan 1 207 Montana 77 288 Northern Arizona 71 73%   
Thu, Jan 1 170 Idaho St. 78 278 Sacramento St. 69 79%   
Sat, Jan 3 170 Idaho St. 70 171 Portland St. 67 62%   
Sat, Jan 3 207 Montana 78 152 Northern Colorado 79 53%   
Sat, Jan 3 278 Sacramento St. 76 225 Weber St. 81 70%   
Sat, Jan 3 259 Eastern Washington 74 172 Idaho 81 76%   
Sat, Jan 3 169 Montana St. 73 288 Northern Arizona 64 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 3.2 29.5 19.2 14.1 11.2 8.6 6.5 4.9 3.2 2.1 0.9
Montana St. 3.9 19.8 16.5 14.4 12.5 10.8 8.6 6.9 5.1 3.4 1.9
Idaho St. 3.9 19.3 16.3 14.6 12.7 10.5 8.7 7.0 5.4 3.4 2.0
Portland St. 4.1 19.3 15.3 14.1 12.0 10.7 8.8 7.5 5.9 4.0 2.4
Idaho 4.0 18.0 16.1 14.5 13.1 11.2 8.9 7.5 5.1 3.7 2.0
Montana 5.3 8.5 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.8 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.4 6.0
Weber St. 5.7 6.1 8.2 9.2 10.8 12.1 12.7 12.5 11.2 9.8 7.3
Eastern Washington 6.7 2.7 4.4 6.2 8.0 9.2 11.2 13.8 15.0 15.4 14.3
Sacramento St. 7.2 2.0 3.6 4.5 6.7 8.1 10.2 12.5 14.7 17.9 19.9
Northern Arizona 7.4 1.6 2.9 4.1 5.8 7.4 9.4 12.3 15.0 19.0 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 6.9 9.6 12.5 14.0 14.5 12.8 9.7 6.5 3.1 1.2 0.3
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 9.6 12.4 13.5 13.8 12.6 9.9 6.9 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.4 7.0 9.8 12.1 13.7 14.1 12.2 9.8 6.8 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.8 7.4 10.1 12.3 13.1 13.3 11.7 9.5 6.5 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1
Idaho 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.4 7.2 10.0 12.6 14.0 13.8 12.4 9.3 6.3 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
Montana 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.0 11.7 12.8 13.5 12.3 10.6 7.7 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.5 7.3 10.2 12.9 14.2 14.1 12.0 8.7 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.7 8.0 11.2 13.8 14.8 13.3 11.4 8.4 5.5 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.4 6.7 9.9 12.8 14.5 13.8 12.2 9.8 6.7 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 6 - 12 0.3 1.5 4.0 7.4 11.2 14.0 15.0 13.7 11.4 8.6 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 29.5% 19.8 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 19.8% 12.2 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 19.3% 12.0 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 19.3% 12.2 5.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho 18.0% 11.4 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Montana 8.5% 4.7 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 6.1% 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 2.7% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 7.6 7.7 2.8 0.4 79.3 0.0%
Montana St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 5.1 3.1 85.5 0.0%
Idaho St. 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 5.3 1.9 85.4 0.0%
Portland St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 4.8 2.2 85.7 0.0%
Idaho 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.5 4.6 1.2 85.7 0.0%
Montana 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.3 92.6 0.0%
Weber St. 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.9 93.8 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 96.7 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 97.5 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 97.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 20.7% 0.1% 20.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 14.5% 1.7% 13.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 14.6% 0.9% 14.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 14.3% 1.0% 13.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 14.3% 0.4% 14.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 7.4% 1.3% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.2% 1.8% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.0% 0.9 5.0 95.0
2nd Round 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0