Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#264
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#247
Pace69.4#160
Improvement+0.9#140

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#234
First Shot-5.6#321
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#22
Layup/Dunks-3.2#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#230
Freethrows-4.3#359
Improvement-0.9#239

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#272
First Shot-4.7#320
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#68
Layups/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#277
Freethrows-0.6#236
Improvement+1.7#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.7% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 34.8% 39.2% 16.7%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 35.9% 14.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.5% 8.3% 35.1%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round3.4% 3.8% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 7
Quad 411 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 91   @ Stanford L 64-90 9%     0 - 1 -16.9 +2.8 -23.5
  Nov 14, 2024 304   @ Pacific W 60-57 48%     1 - 1 -2.0 -12.7 +10.8
  Nov 22, 2024 293   Incarnate Word W 75-74 67%     2 - 1 -9.2 -0.1 -9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 318   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 63%     2 - 2 -13.0 -9.7 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 321   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 53%     3 - 2 -3.4 +3.0 -6.1
  Dec 04, 2024 308   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 49%     3 - 3 -12.3 -1.8 -10.7
  Dec 07, 2024 258   South Dakota W 95-82 60%     4 - 3 +4.7 +5.1 -1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 187   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 24%     4 - 4 -8.2 +3.8 -11.9
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ Southern Utah W 83-75 32%     5 - 4 +7.3 +8.0 -0.9
  Jan 02, 2025 246   Idaho St. L 67-72 58%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -12.7 -4.9 -8.1
  Jan 04, 2025 217   Weber St. W 80-77 52%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -3.1 +7.4 -10.3
  Jan 09, 2025 213   @ Montana L 76-81 29%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -4.8 -0.7 -3.9
  Jan 11, 2025 190   @ Montana St. L 53-58 24%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -3.2 -18.8 +15.7
  Jan 16, 2025 346   Sacramento St. W 71-62 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 248   Portland St. W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 74-77 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 253   @ Idaho L 72-75 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 149   @ Northern Colorado L 74-83 19%    
  Feb 03, 2025 217   @ Weber St. L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 190   Montana St. L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 213   Montana W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 248   @ Portland St. L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   @ Sacramento St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 253   Idaho W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 149   Northern Colorado L 77-80 38%    
  Mar 03, 2025 246   @ Idaho St. L 67-71 36%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 4.3 0.9 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 6.1 1.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 7.4 2.9 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 7.2 5.6 0.4 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 7.2 6.6 0.9 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.4 5.8 1.3 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.6 9.9 15.1 17.3 17.3 13.6 9.2 5.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 85.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 49.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 21.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 21.9% 21.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 22.5% 22.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 2.3% 11.0% 11.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
11-7 5.5% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 4.9
10-8 9.2% 9.0% 9.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.5 8.4
9-9 13.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.2 0.8 12.7
8-10 17.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 16.7
7-11 17.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 16.9
6-12 15.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.9
5-13 9.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.8
4-14 5.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.6
3-15 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%