Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#213
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#207
Pace71.3#98
Improvement+2.7#68

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#259
First Shot-4.8#309
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#89
Layup/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#304
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-1.5#259

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#168
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#243
Layups/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+4.2#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 12.9% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 77.7% 86.6% 59.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 94.2% 72.1%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.3% 2.0% 2.9%
First Round10.9% 12.1% 8.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 73 - 9
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   @ Washington St. L 92-100 19%     0 - 1 -1.5 +9.1 -9.6
  Nov 12, 2024 312   @ San Diego W 85-76 63%     1 - 1 +2.7 -5.8 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 152   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 28%     1 - 2 -13.9 +2.8 -16.7
  Nov 23, 2024 133   St. Thomas L 65-91 33%     1 - 3 -24.4 -12.0 -11.9
  Nov 24, 2024 164   Wofford W 79-74 38%     2 - 3 +5.3 +7.0 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2024 299   Utah Tech W 71-68 76%     3 - 3 -7.4 -4.4 -2.9
  Dec 04, 2024 146   @ Seattle L 74-91 27%     3 - 4 -13.5 +6.4 -20.6
  Dec 07, 2024 330   Denver L 67-68 83%     3 - 5 -14.0 -4.0 -10.1
  Dec 18, 2024 297   @ Pacific W 81-75 60%     4 - 5 +0.5 +0.5 -0.3
  Dec 21, 2024 262   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 59-58 51%     5 - 5 -2.2 -16.0 +13.9
  Jan 04, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. L 53-56 70%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -11.4 -13.8 +1.9
  Jan 09, 2025 253   Eastern Washington W 64-59 68%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -2.7 -13.5 +10.7
  Jan 11, 2025 263   Idaho W 75-63 69%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +3.8 -0.1 +4.7
  Jan 16, 2025 165   @ Northern Colorado L 69-72 29%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -0.3 -2.5 +2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 251   @ Northern Arizona W 80-69 49%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +8.4 +9.7 -0.7
  Jan 23, 2025 291   Weber St. W 74-56 74%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +8.4 +1.6 +8.3
  Jan 25, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 76-59 63%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.7 +1.3 +9.8
  Jan 30, 2025 189   @ Montana L 78-92 36%     10 - 8 5 - 3 -13.1 +7.3 -21.3
  Feb 01, 2025 192   @ Montana St. L 73-74 36%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -0.3 +4.9 -5.3
  Feb 06, 2025 263   @ Idaho W 76-69 51%     11 - 9 6 - 4 +3.7 -3.8 +7.3
  Feb 08, 2025 253   @ Eastern Washington L 67-72 49%     11 - 10 6 - 5 -7.8 -3.6 -4.4
  Feb 13, 2025 251   Northern Arizona W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   Northern Colorado L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   @ Weber St. W 72-70 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 192   Montana St. W 71-70 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 189   Montana W 75-74 55%    
  Mar 03, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 73-63 84%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.5 6.1 2nd
3rd 2.2 16.3 21.9 8.9 0.7 50.0 3rd
4th 0.5 9.3 10.0 1.4 0.0 21.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.2 7.5 0.6 11.3 5th
6th 0.4 4.6 1.2 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 2.6 10.1 20.2 26.9 24.3 12.8 2.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 26.3% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.9% 20.4% 20.4% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-6 12.8% 18.0% 18.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 10.5
11-7 24.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.5 0.1 1.6 1.7 21.0
10-8 26.9% 11.8% 11.8% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 23.7
9-9 20.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.2 1.7 18.3
8-10 10.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 0.4 9.6
7-11 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.5
6-12 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.8 4.3 6.6 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.1 15.3 66.1 16.9 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%