Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
130 Akron 24.0%   15   9 - 5 4 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 4 +1.9      +1.3 142 +0.6 152 75.8 33 +1.8 135 +9.9 1
133 Ohio 21.7%   9 - 6 4 - 0 19 - 11 13 - 5 +1.6      +1.7 129 -0.2 174 74.0 52 -0.3 174 +9.6 2
144 Kent St. 18.4%   9 - 5 2 - 2 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.2      -3.1 258 +4.3 65 65.8 247 +1.3 145 -9.0 7
162 Miami (OH) 16.0%   10 - 4 4 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +0.1      +0.6 165 -0.5 192 70.2 141 +3.0 120 +8.7 3
207 Toledo 7.2%   8 - 7 3 - 1 16 - 14 11 - 7 -2.6      +1.7 128 -4.3 299 73.6 63 +0.8 155 +2.9 4
222 Central Michigan 4.6%   3 - 9 1 - 3 12 - 15 9 - 9 -3.5      -4.1 285 +0.6 153 66.5 236 -4.6 242 -9.5 9
226 Ball St. 4.7%   5 - 8 2 - 2 14 - 14 10 - 8 -3.7      -1.0 206 -2.7 260 67.0 227 -6.5 275 -0.6 5
275 Bowling Green 1.9%   5 - 9 2 - 2 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.3      -2.9 247 -3.3 274 72.7 78 -7.4 291 -4.5 6
288 Western Michigan 1.2%   3 - 12 1 - 3 10 - 20 7 - 11 -6.9      -1.9 226 -4.9 318 70.2 145 -10.7 325 -9.1 8
319 Eastern Michigan 0.2%   6 - 9 1 - 3 11 - 19 5 - 13 -9.5      -3.3 260 -6.3 342 70.6 127 -5.0 248 -12.2 10
340 Buffalo 0.1%   3 - 11 0 - 4 7 - 22 4 - 14 -11.2      -6.3 330 -5.0 321 72.7 79 -8.7 304 -16.5 11
356 Northern Illinois 0.0%   1 - 12 0 - 4 4 - 24 3 - 15 -14.1      -8.9 355 -5.2 326 73.2 68 -15.5 351 -18.1 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Akron 2.1 46.9 25.2 13.8 7.2 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 2.6 33.9 24.1 17.4 11.1 6.6 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 4.4 7.7 12.9 16.0 17.1 15.8 12.9 8.7 5.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 2.7 28.7 25.9 18.8 11.8 7.3 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Toledo 4.6 5.9 11.0 15.3 17.5 16.2 13.9 10.6 6.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 6.2 1.0 3.3 6.8 11.0 14.7 16.9 16.9 14.4 9.8 3.8 1.2 0.3
Ball St. 5.4 2.7 6.6 11.0 15.5 17.1 15.9 13.7 10.1 5.2 1.6 0.5 0.1
Bowling Green 6.8 0.6 2.2 4.9 8.3 11.5 15.0 17.5 18.8 12.9 6.1 1.8 0.4
Western Michigan 8.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.5 9.5 14.0 19.9 25.2 13.6 5.4 1.8
Eastern Michigan 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.3 10.6 19.1 34.5 18.8 6.7
Buffalo 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.6 10.1 21.9 35.3 24.5
Northern Illinois 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 5.4 14.2 31.0 46.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.2 7.3 12.8 18.1 20.3 18.3 12.0 5.3 1.1
Ohio 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.5 11.1 15.9 18.6 18.0 13.7 7.8 3.0 0.6
Kent St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 7.3 12.6 16.7 18.4 17.2 12.2 6.9 2.5 0.4
Miami (OH) 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 7.2 12.1 17.2 19.3 17.4 12.3 6.7 2.2 0.4
Toledo 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.4 8.5 13.9 17.9 18.6 15.8 10.4 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
Central Michigan 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.6 11.4 15.9 18.6 17.5 13.4 7.6 3.3 1.0 0.1
Ball St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.3 7.4 12.1 16.9 18.6 17.3 12.3 6.8 2.8 0.8 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.9 9.6 15.0 17.8 18.0 14.8 9.6 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.3 11.5 16.7 19.3 17.4 12.9 7.6 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 5 - 13 1.0 5.1 11.6 17.9 20.2 17.6 13.1 7.8 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 4 - 14 2.2 8.2 15.7 19.4 19.6 15.3 10.1 5.5 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 3 - 15 5.4 15.5 22.3 22.5 16.7 10.0 4.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 46.9% 31.9 11.6 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Ohio 33.9% 21.6 9.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kent St. 7.7% 3.3 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 28.7% 17.0 8.6 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Toledo 5.9% 2.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 2.7% 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Buffalo
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 2.3 7.4 9.6 4.2 0.4 76.0 0.0%
Ohio 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 5.8 8.8 4.8 0.7 78.3 0.0%
Kent St. 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 7.8 3.3 0.2 81.6 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.1 6.3 2.8 0.2 84.0 0.0%
Toledo 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.3 1.1 92.8 0.0%
Central Michigan 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.7 95.4 0.0%
Ball St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.4 95.3 0.0%
Bowling Green 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 98.1 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Buffalo 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 24.0% 0.0% 24.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 21.7% 0.1% 21.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 18.4% 0.0% 18.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.0% 0.0% 16.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 7.2% 0.3% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 4.6% 1.1% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.7% 1.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 97.8
2nd Round 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0