Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#301
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#318
Pace71.8#85
Improvement-0.2#203

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#278
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#352
Layup/Dunks-0.7#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows-0.4#196
Improvement-0.7#215

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#296
First Shot-5.1#325
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#106
Layups/Dunks-3.1#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+0.5#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 5.8% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 1.7% 11.0%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 49 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 256   @ Southern Miss L 68-77 31%     0 - 1 -12.0 -7.6 -3.9
  Nov 08, 2024 121   Davidson L 85-91 21%     0 - 2 -5.8 +3.3 -8.6
  Nov 16, 2024 19   @ Michigan St. L 72-86 1%     0 - 3 +4.9 +8.6 -3.5
  Nov 19, 2024 305   Niagara W 76-68 60%     1 - 3 -2.8 +6.5 -8.3
  Nov 23, 2024 351   @ Bellarmine L 68-80 60%     1 - 4 -22.6 -11.8 -11.2
  Nov 29, 2024 291   Weber St. L 70-73 46%     1 - 5 -10.1 -6.8 -3.4
  Nov 30, 2024 170   New Mexico St. W 61-60 23%     2 - 5 +0.8 -7.0 +7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 331   Morgan St. W 102-81 68%     3 - 5 +7.9 +12.0 -5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 235   @ UMKC L 77-85 27%     3 - 6 -9.7 +8.5 -18.5
  Dec 21, 2024 133   St. Thomas L 68-93 24%     3 - 7 -25.8 -16.8 -6.2
  Jan 03, 2025 98   Akron L 68-71 16%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -0.6 -8.0 +7.6
  Jan 07, 2025 322   @ Western Michigan W 83-79 47%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -3.4 +7.7 -11.0
  Jan 11, 2025 257   @ Ball St. L 69-91 31%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -25.0 -11.0 -13.1
  Jan 14, 2025 339   Buffalo W 79-61 72%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +3.9 +1.1 +2.9
  Jan 18, 2025 298   Eastern Michigan L 62-68 59%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -16.4 -15.2 -1.4
  Jan 21, 2025 150   @ Miami (OH) L 76-84 15%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -4.8 +1.1 -5.6
  Jan 24, 2025 201   Toledo L 71-84 36%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -17.5 -9.2 -8.2
  Jan 28, 2025 131   @ Kent St. L 57-75 13%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -13.8 -5.8 -9.6
  Feb 01, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan L 71-90 24%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -19.7 +3.5 -24.7
  Feb 04, 2025 347   Northern Illinois W 84-77 74%     6 - 14 3 - 7 -7.8 +4.8 -12.7
  Feb 08, 2025 320   Coastal Carolina W 67-53 65%     7 - 14 +1.9 -11.4 +13.5
  Feb 11, 2025 172   Ohio L 81-86 31%     7 - 15 3 - 8 -7.9 -0.5 -6.9
  Feb 15, 2025 339   @ Buffalo W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 18, 2025 131   Kent St. L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 21, 2025 201   @ Toledo L 77-86 20%    
  Feb 25, 2025 298   @ Eastern Michigan L 75-78 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 257   Ball St. L 75-76 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 347   @ Northern Illinois W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 07, 2025 322   Western Michigan W 77-73 67%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 5th
6th 0.8 4.2 1.7 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.6 7.8 5.6 0.2 14.2 7th
8th 0.4 8.7 11.5 1.2 0.0 21.9 8th
9th 0.0 4.9 13.4 2.9 0.0 21.2 9th
10th 2.6 12.9 5.5 0.2 21.1 10th
11th 1.1 6.4 3.9 0.2 11.6 11th
12th 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 2.0 9.8 22.1 28.4 23.2 11.3 2.9 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.3% 0.3
9-9 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-10 11.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.2
7-11 23.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 23.1
6-12 28.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 28.3
5-13 22.1% 22.1
4-14 9.8% 9.8
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%