Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#218
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#269
Pace67.6#215
Improvement+6.5#8

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#208
First Shot+0.6#158
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#286
Layup/Dunks-0.1#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#215
Freethrows+4.1#8
Improvement+5.1#7

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#237
First Shot-2.9#272
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
Freethrows-3.1#345
Improvement+1.4#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 8.0% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 52.0% 71.5% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 91.6% 76.9%
Conference Champion 5.2% 12.8% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round5.1% 7.7% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 23.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 53 - 7
Quad 412 - 815 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 51%     0 - 1 -8.4 -6.1 -2.5
  Nov 13, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 69-77 9%     0 - 2 +3.5 -0.3 +3.8
  Nov 16, 2024 175   Indiana St. L 84-94 51%     0 - 3 -13.4 -3.9 -8.2
  Nov 20, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 84%     0 - 4 -24.7 -16.9 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 235   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 53%     1 - 4 -2.0 -10.0 +8.1
  Nov 27, 2024 204   Richmond L 60-73 46%     1 - 5 -15.3 -5.5 -11.4
  Dec 08, 2024 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 49%     1 - 6 -16.0 +2.5 -19.3
  Dec 14, 2024 353   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 75%     2 - 6 -6.2 +12.3 -18.1
  Dec 21, 2024 254   Evansville W 80-43 68%     3 - 6 +28.8 +14.7 +17.4
  Jan 04, 2025 113   @ Kent St. W 75-67 20%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +13.8 +6.0 +7.3
  Jan 07, 2025 164   Miami (OH) L 72-80 49%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -11.1 -2.2 -9.0
  Jan 11, 2025 287   Bowling Green W 91-69 74%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +12.1 +8.8 +2.4
  Jan 14, 2025 143   @ Ohio L 72-79 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 212   Toledo W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 21, 2025 240   @ Central Michigan L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 28, 2025 310   Western Michigan W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 332   @ Buffalo W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 04, 2025 131   @ Akron L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   Southern Miss W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 11, 2025 318   Eastern Michigan W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 79-66 90%    
  Feb 18, 2025 212   @ Toledo L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 332   Buffalo W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 131   Akron L 75-77 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 287   @ Bowling Green W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 240   Central Michigan W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 07, 2025 164   @ Miami (OH) L 71-77 30%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.7 4.0 0.4 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 7.5 5.4 0.8 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 7.5 7.0 1.3 0.0 18.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 6.2 6.1 1.2 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.1 4.6 1.0 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 5.8 10.4 13.9 16.4 17.9 14.8 9.4 5.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.8% 0.6    0.4 0.1
15-3 66.7% 1.4    0.7 0.7 0.1
14-4 40.8% 2.1    0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1
13-5 10.4% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 19.3% 19.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 26.3% 26.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 2.2% 15.7% 15.7% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
14-4 5.0% 17.8% 17.8% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 4.1
13-5 9.4% 12.5% 12.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 8.3
12-6 14.8% 7.6% 7.6% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 13.7
11-7 17.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 17.2
10-8 16.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 16.0
9-9 13.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.5
8-10 10.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 5.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.8
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 2.2 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%