Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#309
Expected Predictive Rating-11.9#332
Pace70.3#133
Improvement-1.8#261

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#256
First Shot-5.5#324
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#54
Layup/Dunks+1.6#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#348
Freethrows-2.1#304
Improvement+0.8#130

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#320
First Shot-5.6#341
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#130
Layups/Dunks-4.0#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#315
Freethrows+0.8#119
Improvement-2.6#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 21.2% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 3.1% 10.0%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 43 - 11
Quad 46 - 119 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 293   @ Coastal Carolina L 56-60 37%     0 - 1 -8.9 -14.3 +4.9
  Nov 11, 2024 80   @ Butler L 65-85 6%     0 - 2 -10.2 -4.3 -5.8
  Nov 15, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville L 60-79 50%     0 - 3 -27.4 -12.6 -15.6
  Nov 17, 2024 345   Canisius W 92-69 73%     1 - 3 +8.5 +11.1 -2.2
  Nov 20, 2024 269   South Dakota L 76-80 51%     1 - 4 -12.7 -9.1 -3.4
  Nov 27, 2024 207   @ Youngstown St. W 73-62 21%     2 - 4 +11.2 +6.6 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2024 68   @ Dayton L 69-77 5%     2 - 5 +2.9 +11.8 -10.4
  Dec 13, 2024 123   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 11%     2 - 6 -1.0 +2.6 -4.0
  Dec 15, 2024 111   @ North Dakota St. L 62-98 10%     2 - 7 -30.4 -10.3 -21.6
  Dec 20, 2024 214   Valparaiso L 73-76 39%     2 - 8 -8.5 -2.6 -5.9
  Dec 30, 2024 11   @ Michigan St. L 62-80 1%     2 - 9 +1.8 -3.2 +5.7
  Jan 04, 2025 211   Toledo L 70-76 38%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -11.2 -13.2 +2.3
  Jan 07, 2025 284   Bowling Green L 79-83 55%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -13.6 +2.8 -16.4
  Jan 11, 2025 154   @ Miami (OH) L 71-91 14%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -16.8 -3.7 -12.3
  Jan 14, 2025 141   @ Kent St. W 94-83 13%     3 - 12 1 - 3 +15.0 +21.6 -7.1
  Jan 18, 2025 332   Buffalo L 76-85 71%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -23.0 -12.7 -9.1
  Jan 21, 2025 354   Northern Illinois W 72-70 77%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -14.1 -5.0 -9.0
  Jan 25, 2025 230   @ Central Michigan L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 247   @ Ball St. L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 304   Eastern Michigan W 77-75 60%    
  Feb 04, 2025 160   @ Ohio L 73-84 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 272   Georgia Southern W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 108   @ Akron L 71-85 9%    
  Feb 15, 2025 154   Miami (OH) L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 332   @ Buffalo W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 230   Central Michigan L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 160   Ohio L 76-82 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 354   @ Northern Illinois W 76-73 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 141   Kent St. L 65-72 27%    
  Mar 07, 2025 284   @ Bowling Green L 74-78 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.0 0.5 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 4.8 1.6 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 8.0 3.9 0.4 15.2 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 9.7 6.7 0.8 20.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 5.0 12.7 8.1 1.3 0.0 27.9 10th
11th 0.4 3.2 6.2 3.8 0.5 0.0 14.2 11th
12th 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.2 12th
Total 1.3 5.5 12.2 20.2 21.2 18.5 11.5 6.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.4
9-9 6.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
8-10 11.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.3
7-11 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.4
6-12 21.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.2
5-13 20.2% 20.2
4-14 12.2% 12.2
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%