Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#339
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#304
Pace75.6#32
Improvement-1.1#241

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#345
First Shot-3.3#276
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#350
Layup/Dunks+3.1#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#219
Freethrows-1.6#279
Improvement-2.8#314

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#306
First Shot-4.6#317
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks-0.3#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#355
Freethrows+1.5#86
Improvement+1.7#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 5.0% 22.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 48 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 23%     1 - 0 -2.8 +4.5 -7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 89   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 4%     1 - 1 -0.2 -0.1 +0.8
  Nov 14, 2024 159   Bryant L 64-87 18%     1 - 2 -25.0 -16.8 -5.9
  Nov 19, 2024 237   @ Vermont L 67-78 18%     1 - 3 -12.9 +2.1 -15.8
  Nov 22, 2024 331   Morgan St. W 82-73 56%     2 - 3 -4.1 +1.7 -5.6
  Nov 25, 2024 323   N.C. A&T W 82-81 53%     3 - 3 -11.4 -7.0 -4.5
  Dec 01, 2024 65   @ Penn St. L 64-87 3%     3 - 4 -12.2 -4.1 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 110   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-65 6%     3 - 5 -4.1 -8.6 +3.6
  Dec 19, 2024 39   @ Georgia L 49-100 2%     3 - 6 -36.5 -14.2 -22.8
  Dec 29, 2024 141   @ Temple L 71-91 8%     3 - 7 -16.3 -10.7 -3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 150   @ Miami (OH) L 79-93 9%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -10.8 +6.0 -16.6
  Jan 07, 2025 172   Ohio L 79-88 20%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -11.9 -4.8 -6.0
  Jan 10, 2025 131   Kent St. L 49-68 16%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -19.8 -19.6 -0.8
  Jan 14, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green L 61-79 28%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -23.7 -14.3 -9.4
  Jan 18, 2025 322   @ Western Michigan W 85-76 34%     4 - 11 1 - 4 +1.6 -3.1 +3.5
  Jan 21, 2025 98   Akron L 58-90 10%     4 - 12 1 - 5 -29.6 -20.1 -6.5
  Jan 25, 2025 298   @ Eastern Michigan L 77-90 28%     4 - 13 1 - 6 -18.5 -0.6 -17.7
  Jan 28, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 75-69 28%     5 - 13 2 - 6 +0.4 -4.0 +4.1
  Feb 01, 2025 257   Ball St. L 76-89 36%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -20.9 -4.8 -15.9
  Feb 04, 2025 201   @ Toledo L 74-87 13%     5 - 15 2 - 8 -12.5 -4.4 -7.9
  Feb 08, 2025 261   Georgia St. L 75-80 37%     5 - 16 -13.1 -13.5 +1.1
  Feb 11, 2025 347   @ Northern Illinois W 73-67 43%     6 - 16 3 - 8 -3.9 -1.6 -2.2
  Feb 15, 2025 301   Bowling Green L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 18, 2025 322   Western Michigan W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   @ Ball St. L 72-81 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan L 68-79 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   Toledo L 78-85 27%    
  Mar 04, 2025 150   Miami (OH) L 72-82 19%    
  Mar 07, 2025 98   @ Akron L 71-90 4%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.5 5.2 3.0 0.1 8.8 8th
9th 0.1 5.5 8.8 0.7 15.1 9th
10th 4.4 16.4 4.1 0.0 24.9 10th
11th 8.4 23.6 9.9 0.4 42.2 11th
12th 2.5 1.3 0.1 3.8 12th
Total 10.8 29.4 32.3 19.0 6.9 1.4 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.2% 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
6-12 19.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
5-13 32.3% 32.3
4-14 29.4% 29.4
3-15 10.8% 10.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.8%