IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#280
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.5	#328
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.8	#311

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.9	#234

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.0	12.1	11.9

.500 or above	7.0%	20.9%	5.3%
.500 or above in Conference	2.8%	7.7%	2.2%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	57.5%	42.1%	59.3%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 7	1 - 11
Quad 3	2 - 8	3 - 18
Quad 4	6 - 5	9 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	112	@ Belmont	L	64-77	11%
Nov 08, 2025	276	Austin Peay	W	67-64	60%
Nov 11, 2025	300	LIU Brooklyn	W	64-60	64%
Nov 15, 2025	128	Miami (OH)	L	66-72	30%
Nov 19, 2025	292	Alabama St.	W	68-64	63%
Nov 21, 2025	240	SIU Edwardsville	W	64-63	53%
Nov 23, 2025	359	IU Indianapolis	W	71-60	83%
Nov 26, 2025	190	Northern Colorado	L	68-70	44%
Nov 29, 2025	294	South Dakota	W	77-76	53%
Dec 03, 2025	219	Pacific	L	66-67	49%
Dec 07, 2025	224	@ Navy	L	63-69	30%
Dec 17, 2025	38	@ San Diego St.	L	52-75	3%
Dec 30, 2025	155	Wyoming	L	61-65	37%
Jan 03, 2026	86	@ UNLV	L	57-73	9%
Jan 06, 2026	54	Utah St.	L	62-76	12%
Jan 10, 2026	79	New Mexico	L	65-76	18%
Jan 13, 2026	159	@ San Jose St.	L	61-70	21%
Jan 17, 2026	98	Nevada	L	58-67	23%
Jan 20, 2026	94	@ Colorado St.	L	58-73	10%
Jan 24, 2026	62	@ Boise St.	L	56-75	6%
Jan 31, 2026	198	Fresno St.	L	70-71	45%
Feb 03, 2026	80	@ Grand Canyon	L	61-78	9%
Feb 07, 2026	38	San Diego St.	L	55-72	8%
Feb 10, 2026	94	Colorado St.	L	61-70	22%
Feb 14, 2026	198	@ Fresno St.	L	67-74	27%
Feb 17, 2026	79	@ New Mexico	L	62-79	8%
Feb 21, 2026	86	UNLV	L	60-70	21%
Feb 24, 2026	159	San Jose St.	L	64-67	39%
Feb 28, 2026	155	@ Wyoming	L	58-68	22%
Mar 03, 2026	80	Grand Canyon	L	64-75	19%
Mar 07, 2026	98	@ Nevada	L	55-70	11%
Projected Record						9 - 22	4 - 16

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.1	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.2	3rd
4th											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0								0.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0									0.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0									1.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	0.8	0.9	0.4	0.0											2.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	1.4	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0											4.3	8th
9th					0.1	1.0	2.7	2.6	0.9	0.1	0.0												7.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.7	2.8	4.9	3.6	1.2	0.1														13.3	10th
11th		0.4	3.0	7.0	7.3	4.5	1.2	0.1															23.5	11th
12th	6.9	13.0	13.3	8.7	3.4	0.7	0.1																46.1	12th

Total	6.9	13.4	16.3	16.4	13.7	11.2	8.0	5.5	3.6	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0						Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	100.0%	0.0			0.0
16-4	25.5%	0.0		0.0
15-5	24.8%	0.0			0.0
14-6	0.1%	0.0			0.0
13-7	3.4%	0.0			0.0			0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0			0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	0.0%		50.0%		50.0%	10.0											0.0							0.0		50.0%
16-4	0.0%																							0.0
15-5	0.0%		25.5%	25.5%		11.0												0.0						0.0
14-6	0.1%		5.3%		5.3%	11.0												0.0						0.1		5.3%
13-7	0.2%		8.4%	8.4%		11.8												0.0	0.0		0.0			0.2
12-8	0.3%		3.7%	3.7%		11.7												0.0	0.0					0.3
11-9	0.7%		1.2%	1.2%		11.5												0.0	0.0					0.7
10-10	1.4%		0.6%	0.6%		12.0													0.0					1.4
9-11	2.2%		0.2%	0.2%		14.0															0.0			2.2
8-12	3.6%		0.2%	0.2%		12.5													0.0	0.0				3.6
7-13	5.5%		0.1%	0.1%		12.0													0.0					5.5
6-14	8.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.0
5-15	11.2%																							11.2
4-16	13.7%																							13.7
3-17	16.4%																							16.4
2-18	16.3%																							16.3
1-19	13.4%																							13.4
0-20	6.9%																							6.9

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	12.0											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%