Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#23
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#123
Pace78.5#16
Improvement-0.2#198

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#20
First Shot+5.0#50
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#34
Layup/Dunks+8.1#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#279
Freethrows+0.7#142
Improvement+0.3#157

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#42
First Shot+5.6#33
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+8.5#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#200
Freethrows-0.9#253
Improvement-0.4#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.4% 4.5% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 15.5% 15.9% 5.4%
Top 6 Seed 30.4% 31.0% 14.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.7% 62.6% 38.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.1% 60.0% 36.3%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.4
.500 or above 75.9% 77.0% 48.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.0% 72.7% 56.3%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.4% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 3.7%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 5.4%
First Round59.4% 60.3% 35.8%
Second Round41.8% 42.5% 22.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.6% 21.0% 9.1%
Elite Eight9.6% 9.8% 4.2%
Final Four4.4% 4.5% 1.4%
Championship Game2.0% 2.1% 0.7%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.2%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 14
Quad 34 - 015 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 345   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +13.8 +9.0 +3.9
  Nov 09, 2024 317   Old Dominion W 102-44 98%     2 - 0 +46.2 +18.1 +25.0
  Nov 15, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 44%     2 - 1 +0.5 +8.5 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 2   Duke L 55-69 36%     2 - 2 +3.6 -6.9 +10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 134   Davidson W 104-71 88%     3 - 2 +34.4 +19.3 +11.5
  Nov 28, 2024 41   Oklahoma L 77-82 60%     3 - 3 +6.4 +9.8 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2024 45   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 62%     3 - 4 +3.9 +6.5 -2.3
  Dec 07, 2024 199   Southern Utah W 91-72 96%    
  Dec 13, 2024 18   UCLA L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 18, 2024 121   Samford W 97-82 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 196   Central Michigan W 86-67 96%    
  Dec 30, 2024 78   TCU W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 07, 2025 45   @ West Virginia W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 83   Central Florida W 85-74 83%    
  Jan 14, 2025 13   Baylor W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 21, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. W 83-79 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 85   Colorado W 83-72 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 04, 2025 49   @ BYU W 83-82 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 11, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 6   Houston L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 17, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 49   BYU W 86-79 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 60   Utah W 85-77 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 77-84 26%    
  Mar 04, 2025 51   Arizona St. W 83-76 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 76-83 26%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.0 1.9 0.3 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.0 1.0 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.4 1.5 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.0 7.3 9.7 12.0 13.0 12.8 11.4 9.1 6.7 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 99.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 78.2% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
16-4 49.5% 1.9    0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.5% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 3.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.7% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 4.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.1% 99.6% 12.8% 86.8% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 11.4% 98.4% 9.0% 89.4% 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
12-8 12.8% 91.6% 5.4% 86.3% 7.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.1 91.1%
11-9 13.0% 72.7% 3.4% 69.3% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.2 3.5 71.7%
10-10 12.0% 42.5% 2.1% 40.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 0.4 6.9 41.2%
9-11 9.7% 11.9% 1.3% 10.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.5 10.7%
8-12 7.3% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2 1.8%
7-13 5.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2%
6-14 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.7% 6.4% 55.3% 6.6 1.7 2.7 4.9 6.2 7.3 7.6 8.0 6.8 5.4 5.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.3 59.1%