St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#135
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#115
Pace69.5#141
Improvement-1.1#245

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#72
First Shot+8.2#19
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#343
Layup/Dunks+2.8#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#8
Freethrows+1.0#110
Improvement+1.5#106

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#259
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#233
Layups/Dunks+1.3#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#259
Freethrows-2.2#316
Improvement-2.6#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 25.8% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 67.3% 82.7% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.6% 25.8% 21.1%
Second Round1.8% 2.0% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 416 - 121 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 344   @ Green Bay W 90-76 85%     1 - 0 +4.3 +9.0 -5.0
  Nov 10, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 26%     1 - 1 -0.8 -1.8 +1.7
  Nov 17, 2024 64   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 19%     1 - 2 -4.1 +1.5 -5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 155   Wofford L 73-81 54%     1 - 3 -7.3 +0.2 -7.7
  Nov 23, 2024 214   Portland St. W 91-65 67%     2 - 3 +23.1 +16.7 +5.9
  Nov 24, 2024 152   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 44%     2 - 4 -0.8 -4.9 +4.1
  Dec 02, 2024 358   Chicago St. W 98-76 95%     3 - 4 +5.0 +8.0 -5.6
  Dec 04, 2024 164   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 46%     4 - 4 +14.7 +18.7 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 188   Montana W 88-81 71%     5 - 4 +2.9 +9.0 -6.1
  Dec 13, 2024 322   Western Michigan W 77-71 90%     6 - 4 -6.4 +3.5 -9.4
  Dec 21, 2024 303   @ Bowling Green W 93-68 76%     7 - 4 +19.3 +6.7 +9.8
  Dec 29, 2024 168   @ UC Riverside L 79-81 OT 48%     7 - 5 +0.2 -1.3 +1.8
  Jan 02, 2025 144   @ North Dakota St. W 89-85 42%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +7.6 +19.2 -11.3
  Jan 04, 2025 268   @ North Dakota W 88-80 69%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +4.4 +5.9 -1.8
  Jan 08, 2025 109   South Dakota St. W 73-72 52%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +2.2 +6.8 -4.5
  Jan 11, 2025 258   South Dakota W 119-104 82%     11 - 5 4 - 0 +7.0 +27.2 -21.5
  Jan 18, 2025 331   Denver W 74-62 91%     12 - 5 5 - 0 -1.0 -0.2 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2025 199   @ Nebraska Omaha L 78-89 55%     12 - 6 5 - 1 -10.6 +1.4 -11.7
  Jan 25, 2025 234   @ UMKC W 68-65 62%     13 - 6 6 - 1 +1.4 +2.3 -0.6
  Jan 29, 2025 316   Oral Roberts W 86-71 89%     14 - 6 7 - 1 +3.5 +14.3 -9.1
  Feb 02, 2025 144   North Dakota St. W 79-62 61%     15 - 6 8 - 1 +15.7 +9.6 +8.0
  Feb 06, 2025 109   @ South Dakota St. L 86-102 33%     15 - 7 8 - 2 -9.8 +8.7 -17.2
  Feb 08, 2025 331   @ Denver W 79-76 82%     16 - 7 9 - 2 -5.1 +8.9 -13.7
  Feb 15, 2025 199   Nebraska Omaha W 82-76 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 258   @ South Dakota W 91-86 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 316   @ Oral Roberts W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 27, 2025 268   North Dakota W 88-78 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 234   UMKC W 77-69 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 7.6 32.7 26.7 67.3 1st
2nd 0.1 3.8 14.4 5.2 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.7 2.9 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 1.6 8.8 24.9 37.8 26.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 26.7    25.0 1.7
13-3 86.3% 32.7    13.4 16.0 3.3
12-4 30.7% 7.6    1.0 3.7 2.9 0.0
11-5 3.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 67.3% 67.3 39.5 21.5 6.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 26.7% 29.2% 29.2% 12.7 0.1 2.8 4.2 0.8 0.0 18.9
13-3 37.8% 24.7% 24.7% 13.4 0.7 4.7 3.7 0.4 28.5
12-4 24.9% 22.2% 22.2% 13.8 0.1 1.5 3.3 0.6 19.3
11-5 8.8% 17.3% 17.3% 14.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 7.3
10-6 1.6% 20.5% 20.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.3
9-7 0.2% 0.0 0.1
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 13.3 0.1 3.6 10.5 8.8 1.6 0.0 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.8% 100.0% 12.7 0.9 36.2 53.2 9.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.7%