TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#78
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#101
Pace72.3#88
Improvement-3.5#352

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#136
First Shot+0.0#177
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#102
Layup/Dunks+6.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows-2.0#288
Improvement-2.4#331

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#43
First Shot+4.5#58
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#101
Layups/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows+1.4#97
Improvement-1.2#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 15.9% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.4% 15.5% 6.5%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.4
.500 or above 33.9% 46.7% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 23.9% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.1% 13.7% 19.6%
First Four2.8% 3.9% 2.1%
First Round9.1% 13.9% 5.6%
Second Round3.9% 6.1% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Neutral) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 24 - 57 - 16
Quad 34 - 210 - 17
Quad 44 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 105-59 97%     1 - 0 +30.1 +27.8 +2.7
  Nov 08, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 86%     2 - 0 +11.7 -1.4 +14.6
  Nov 12, 2024 138   Texas St. W 76-71 80%     3 - 0 +3.4 +0.0 +3.1
  Nov 15, 2024 16   @ Michigan L 64-76 15%     3 - 1 +6.1 -1.1 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 71-48 97%     4 - 1 +7.3 -4.6 +13.5
  Nov 28, 2024 84   Santa Clara L 52-69 53%     4 - 2 -10.6 -17.2 +6.4
  Nov 29, 2024 99   Colorado St. L 72-76 OT 57%     4 - 3 +1.4 -5.0 +6.8
  Dec 05, 2024 68   Xavier W 76-72 56%     5 - 3 +9.5 +9.3 +0.4
  Dec 08, 2024 67   Vanderbilt L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 16, 2024 206   South Alabama W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 22, 2024 122   Montana St. W 75-67 76%    
  Dec 30, 2024 23   @ Arizona L 73-83 18%    
  Jan 04, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 06, 2025 6   @ Houston L 59-73 9%    
  Jan 11, 2025 49   BYU L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 15, 2025 60   Utah W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 19, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 22, 2025 7   Kansas L 69-77 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 83   @ Central Florida L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 29, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 02, 2025 85   Colorado W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 45   West Virginia L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 67-81 10%    
  Feb 12, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 18, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 45   @ West Virginia L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 83   Central Florida W 75-71 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   Baylor L 70-75 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 85   @ Colorado L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.5 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.5 0.9 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 2.0 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 11.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 3.8 1.2 0.1 11.6 15th
16th 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.2 2.5 0.9 0.1 10.0 16th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.4 8.7 11.4 13.9 13.9 13.0 10.7 7.8 5.3 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 81.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 45.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 21.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.1% 96.4% 18.2% 78.2% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.6%
15-5 0.3% 98.8% 8.3% 90.5% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
14-6 0.9% 97.8% 7.0% 90.8% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
13-7 1.8% 91.1% 2.1% 89.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.9%
12-8 3.3% 75.8% 1.6% 74.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 75.4%
11-9 5.3% 48.4% 0.7% 47.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.7 48.1%
10-10 7.8% 24.1% 0.2% 23.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.1 5.9 24.0%
9-11 10.7% 5.9% 0.4% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.0 5.5%
8-12 13.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 0.7%
7-13 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 11.4% 11.4
4-16 8.7% 8.7
3-17 5.4% 5.4
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 10.7% 0.3% 10.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 89.3 10.4%