California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#127
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#75
Pace65.1#297
Improvement-2.6#332

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#136
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#183
Layup/Dunks+5.0#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#296
Freethrows+1.8#89
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#130
First Shot+1.2#126
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#206
Layups/Dunks+0.0#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#118
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement-2.7#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 22.7% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 99.1% 99.3% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 90.6% 85.9%
Conference Champion 22.1% 22.9% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round21.9% 22.7% 16.6%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 37 - 8
Quad 416 - 223 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 258 South Carolina Upstate W 87-75 84%     1 - 0 +3.5 +10.0 -6.6
  Fri, Nov 7 121 @UC Irvine W 69-61 36%     2 - 0 +13.9 +3.3 +10.5
  Fri, Nov 14 355 Western Illinois W 69-59 95%     3 - 0 -6.7 -3.7 -1.9
  Tue, Nov 18 265 UC Riverside W 80-57 85%     4 - 0 +14.3 -4.4 +16.9
  Fri, Nov 21 282 Grambling St. W 72-59 86%     5 - 0 +3.4 +2.9 +1.7
  Tue, Nov 25 245 San Diego W 76-61 75%     6 - 0 +10.1 -1.2 +11.1
  Sat, Nov 29 165 @Oregon St. W 75-69 48%     7 - 0 +8.6 +6.6 +2.2
  Mon, Dec 1 65 @Colorado L 70-78 19%     7 - 1 +3.6 +2.0 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 3 9 BYU L 44-66 6%     7 - 2 -2.1 +1.4 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 6 119 @Utah L 85-91 36%     7 - 3 +0.0 +12.4 -12.4
  Fri, Dec 12 250 @Eastern Washington W 88-83 66%     8 - 3 +2.9 +11.0 -8.2
  Tue, Dec 16 203 Southern W 75-67 78%     9 - 3 +2.1 +1.4 +0.8
  Sat, Dec 20 281 Sacramento St. W 80-68 86%    
  Mon, Dec 29 82 @Utah Valley L 66-74 24%    
  Thu, Jan 1 179 @Texas Arlington W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Jan 3 194 @Tarleton St. W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 262 Utah Tech W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 316 Southern Utah W 80-66 91%    
  Thu, Jan 15 223 @Abilene Christian W 69-66 61%    
  Wed, Jan 21 262 Utah Tech W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 82 Utah Valley L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 179 @Texas Arlington W 68-67 52%    
  Thu, Feb 5 194 Tarleton St. W 76-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 223 Abilene Christian W 72-63 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 316 @Southern Utah W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 262 @Utah Tech W 72-67 66%    
  Thu, Feb 19 82 @Utah Valley L 66-74 25%    
  Thu, Feb 26 179 Texas Arlington W 71-64 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 194 Tarleton St. W 76-69 74%    
  Thu, Mar 5 223 Abilene Christian W 72-63 79%    
  Sat, Mar 7 316 @Southern Utah W 77-69 76%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 6.0 5.9 3.5 1.1 0.1 22.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.8 11.4 10.7 5.8 1.5 0.1 40.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 6.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.0 8.4 11.9 14.6 15.8 15.1 11.7 7.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
16-2 96.6% 3.5    3.1 0.3
15-3 79.4% 5.9    4.3 1.6
14-4 50.8% 6.0    3.4 2.5 0.1
13-5 25.4% 3.8    1.6 1.9 0.3
12-6 9.0% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 14.1 7.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 76.2% 76.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 1.1% 50.7% 50.7% 11.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6
16-2 3.6% 42.2% 42.2% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1
15-3 7.5% 38.8% 38.8% 12.5 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.1 4.6
14-4 11.7% 33.4% 33.4% 12.7 0.0 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.8
13-5 15.1% 27.6% 27.6% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 10.9
12-6 15.8% 23.3% 23.3% 13.3 0.5 1.9 1.2 0.1 12.2
11-7 14.6% 16.4% 16.4% 13.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 12.2
10-8 11.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 8.4% 7.6% 7.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8
8-10 5.0% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.6
7-11 2.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.3
5-13 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.1 9.5 4.7 0.9 0.1 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.8 6.7 3.3 10.0 60.0 20.0