Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#12
Expected Predictive Rating+22.3#3
Pace71.3#116
Improvement-0.3#203

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#27
First Shot+8.9#11
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#258
Layup/Dunks+7.1#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#56
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement-0.3#214

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#10
First Shot+5.1#46
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#28
Layups/Dunks+3.7#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#242
Freethrows+4.0#9
Improvement+0.0#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.8% 0.7%
#1 Seed 9.2% 10.9% 5.3%
Top 2 Seed 23.6% 27.1% 15.1%
Top 4 Seed 54.5% 59.9% 41.4%
Top 6 Seed 77.5% 82.3% 65.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 98.2% 94.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.0% 97.6% 92.4%
Average Seed 4.5 4.2 5.2
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 95.7% 92.5%
Conference Champion 35.8% 38.2% 30.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.5% 1.1% 2.3%
First Round96.3% 97.6% 93.0%
Second Round76.4% 79.3% 69.5%
Sweet Sixteen42.7% 45.5% 35.8%
Elite Eight20.5% 22.3% 16.0%
Final Four9.4% 10.4% 6.9%
Championship Game4.2% 4.8% 2.8%
National Champion1.9% 2.2% 1.2%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 6
Quad 28 - 216 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 327   Stony Brook W 102-62 99%     1 - 0 +27.7 +23.4 +4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 82   George Mason W 82-63 87%     2 - 0 +22.5 +9.2 +12.5
  Nov 11, 2024 196   Central Michigan W 70-62 96%     3 - 0 +3.5 -6.7 +9.7
  Nov 15, 2024 19   @ Maryland W 78-74 42%     4 - 0 +21.6 +17.6 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2024 21   Purdue W 76-58 65%     5 - 0 +29.5 +8.8 +21.3
  Nov 23, 2024 38   Georgia W 80-69 64%     6 - 0 +22.9 +13.7 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2024 336   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +21.8 +18.3 +4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 263   Western Carolina W 94-62 98%     8 - 0 +23.2 +6.4 +12.8
  Dec 04, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 29%     8 - 1 +10.2 +6.8 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 14, 2024 46   @ Dayton W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 18, 2024 54   Butler W 79-70 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 68   @ Xavier W 77-73 64%    
  Dec 31, 2024 79   @ Providence W 71-66 70%    
  Jan 03, 2025 40   Creighton W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 07, 2025 98   Georgetown W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 14, 2025 97   @ DePaul W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 68   Xavier W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 21, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 67-58 81%    
  Jan 24, 2025 56   Villanova W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 28, 2025 54   @ Butler W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 11   Connecticut W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 04, 2025 20   @ St. John's L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 40   @ Creighton W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 97   DePaul W 81-68 87%    
  Feb 18, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 70-55 92%    
  Feb 21, 2025 56   @ Villanova W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 25, 2025 79   Providence W 74-63 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 98   @ Georgetown W 77-70 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 20   St. John's W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.2 9.3 8.7 5.6 2.5 0.6 35.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 7.6 7.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.5 7.2 9.8 12.7 14.7 14.5 13.0 9.7 5.7 2.5 0.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.0
18-2 98.8% 5.6    5.3 0.3
17-3 89.8% 8.7    7.2 1.5 0.0
16-4 71.4% 9.3    6.3 2.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 42.5% 6.2    2.8 2.7 0.7 0.1
14-6 17.3% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.8% 35.8 25.3 8.5 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 59.0% 41.0% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.7% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.7 2.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.7% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 2.1 2.6 4.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.0% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 2.7 1.5 4.1 4.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.5% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 3.5 0.4 2.1 4.9 4.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.7% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 4.4 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.5 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.7% 99.7% 19.0% 80.8% 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.7 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 9.8% 99.6% 15.4% 84.2% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 7.2% 97.3% 12.0% 85.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 96.9%
10-10 4.5% 92.2% 8.5% 83.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.4 91.5%
9-11 2.8% 75.6% 4.7% 70.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.7 74.4%
8-12 1.4% 45.9% 3.4% 42.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 44.0%
7-13 0.7% 19.3% 4.7% 14.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 15.2%
6-14 0.2% 7.4% 2.5% 4.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.0%
5-15 0.1% 7.3% 7.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.0% 25.9% 71.2% 4.5 9.2 14.3 16.4 14.6 12.5 10.4 6.9 5.0 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 96.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5