Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#161
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 3.0% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 10.5% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 21.6% 21.8% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.0% 52.5% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.2% 49.7% 18.1%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 7.7
.500 or above 70.6% 71.2% 33.9%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 59.4% 33.3%
Conference Champion 4.6% 4.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.7% 12.8%
First Four6.1% 6.1% 3.3%
First Round48.9% 49.4% 18.3%
Second Round31.1% 31.4% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 12.6% 4.5%
Elite Eight4.8% 4.9% 1.7%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 10
Quad 26 - 310 - 13
Quad 34 - 114 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 302   Albany W 83-60 99%    
  Nov 05, 2025 186   Southern W 78-61 94%    
  Nov 09, 2025 34   Indiana L 71-72 45%    
  Nov 12, 2025 177   Arkansas Little Rock W 78-61 93%    
  Nov 15, 2025 40   Maryland W 73-71 58%    
  Nov 19, 2025 65   Dayton W 72-66 71%    
  Nov 22, 2025 299   Central Michigan W 81-58 98%    
  Nov 28, 2025 47   Oklahoma W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 02, 2025 261   Valparaiso W 82-61 96%    
  Dec 06, 2025 26   @ Wisconsin L 69-75 31%    
  Dec 13, 2025 2   @ Purdue L 64-78 11%    
  Dec 17, 2025 69   Georgetown W 75-68 73%    
  Dec 20, 2025 24   @ Creighton L 69-75 31%    
  Dec 30, 2025 101   Seton Hall W 71-61 81%    
  Jan 04, 2026 4   @ Connecticut L 62-75 14%    
  Jan 07, 2026 50   Xavier W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 10, 2026 39   Villanova W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 13, 2026 8   @ St. John's L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 16, 2026 84   @ DePaul W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 19, 2026 59   Providence W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 23, 2026 66   @ Butler W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 27, 2026 24   Creighton W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 31, 2026 101   @ Seton Hall W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 07, 2026 66   Butler W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 10, 2026 39   @ Villanova L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 14, 2026 50   @ Xavier L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 18, 2026 8   St. John's L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 24, 2026 69   @ Georgetown W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 01, 2026 84   DePaul W 76-67 77%    
  Mar 04, 2026 59   @ Providence L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 07, 2026 4   Connecticut L 65-72 30%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.1 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.4 4.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.5 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.6 7.4 9.0 10.5 10.9 10.7 10.0 8.7 7.3 4.9 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 90.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 66.9% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 34.5% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.8% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 62.4% 37.6% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 2.8 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.9% 99.3% 16.1% 83.2% 4.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
14-6 7.3% 98.9% 10.7% 88.3% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.8%
13-7 8.7% 94.4% 8.3% 86.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 93.9%
12-8 10.0% 87.0% 5.0% 82.0% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.3 86.3%
11-9 10.7% 73.1% 3.6% 69.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.0 2.9 72.1%
10-10 10.9% 52.2% 2.0% 50.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 51.2%
9-11 10.5% 21.3% 1.6% 19.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.0 8.3 20.0%
8-12 9.0% 7.0% 0.9% 6.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.4 6.2%
7-13 7.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.6%
6-14 5.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.1%
5-15 3.9% 3.9
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 52.0% 5.4% 46.6% 7.0 0.9 2.1 3.4 4.0 5.2 5.9 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.4 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.0 49.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0