Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.7 #95
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #137
Pace 72.1 #93
Improvement +3.1 #56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #101 C C B C- A
Defense #92 C C B+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #10 1.16 #167 +5.6 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #358 0.71 #250 -5.0 #360
Three Pointers 44% #124 0.96 #260 +0.3 #167
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #142 +0.9 #141
Freethrows 0.31 #170 68% #318 0.21 #220
Second Chance 32.7% #120 0.95 #282 0.31 #178
Turnovers 14.2% #37
Total Offense +2.8 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.17 #191 -1.4 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.70 #84 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 38% #262 0.99 #130 +2.1 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #144 +0.9 #145
Freethrows 0.27 #59 76% #337 0.20 #103
Second Chance 31.3% #211 1.00 #146 0.31 #183
Turnovers 20.5% #27
Total Defense +2.9 #92

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.6% #3 0.1% #176
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #221 -2.0% #140
Possession Length 15.0 #20 18.6 #345
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #8 0.16 #127
Improvement +3.2 #41 -0.1 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 56.7% 43.5% 70.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 51 - 11
Quad 22 - 73 - 18
Quad 33 - 36 - 21
Quad 45 - 111 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 317 Albany W 80 - 53 95% +13  1 - 0 +14 -6 C- F F+ +18 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 5 265 Southern W 100 - 82 91% +9  2 - 0 +9 +12 B+ D- A+ -5 D C C-
 Sun, Nov 9 30 Indiana L 77 - 100 20% -12  2 - 1 -8 +4 F A+ D -11 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 93% +18  3 - 1 +29 +15 A- D- A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 107 Maryland L 82 - 89 69% -3  3 - 2 -6 +2 F A+ B+ -8 F A+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 88 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 60% -5  3 - 3 -3 -7 D D+ C- +5 D- C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 293 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 93% +5  4 - 3 +3 +6 A- F+ B+ -3 C+ A D
 Fri, Nov 28 55 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 35% +4  4 - 4 +9 +12 B D- A+ -3 C- D+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 160 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 80% -2  5 - 4 -0 -4 D- D C +4 D C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 37 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 16% -12  5 - 5 -3 +1 B- F A+ -3 D- A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 8 @Purdue L 59 - 79 5% -16  5 - 6 +4 -1 F+ A C- +3 C D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 78 Georgetown L 69 - 78 56% -2  5 - 7 0 - 1 -5 +4 D+ B+ A+ -9 C+ F C
 Sat, Dec 20 58 @Creighton L 63 - 84 26% -14  5 - 8 0 - 2 -9 -12 F+ F+ C +5 B- C+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 53 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 44% +2  5 - 9 0 - 3 +1 +7 C- D+ A+ -6 A F B-
 Sun, Jan 4 9 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 5% -11  5 - 10 0 - 4 +8 -2 D+ D+ A- +9 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 84 Xavier W 66 - 65 58% +5  6 - 10 1 - 4 +5 -6 F+ A+ D- +10 B A- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 32 Villanova L 73 - 76 30% -3  6 - 11 1 - 5 +8 +13 A C- A+ -5 D C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 18 @St. John's L 68 - 92 9% -11  6 - 12 1 - 6 -3 +1 A+ F F+ -3 C C C+
 Fri, Jan 16 94 @DePaul L 75 - 80 38% +0  6 - 13 1 - 7 +4 +15 A+ F A+ -11 C- F F
 Mon, Jan 19 67 Providence W 105 - 104 OT 52% +3  7 - 13 2 - 7 +6 +16 A- A A+ -9 D+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 66 @Butler L 76 - 87 29% -5  7 - 14 2 - 8 +0 +7 B A D+ -7 B- D- C
 Tue, Jan 27 58 Creighton W 86 - 62 48% +17  8 - 14 3 - 8 +30 +15 A+ C A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 53 @Seton Hall L 64 - 69 24% +2  8 - 15 3 - 9 +8 +10 C A+ D+ -3 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 66 Butler W 80 - 79 51%
 Tue, Feb 10 32 @Villanova L 66 - 78 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 84 @Xavier L 77 - 81 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 18 St. John's L 75 - 84 20%
 Tue, Feb 24 78 @Georgetown L 72 - 77 33%
 Sun, Mar 1 94 DePaul W 75 - 72 61%
 Wed, Mar 4 67 @Providence L 83 - 89 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 9 Connecticut L 66 - 78 13%
Totals 11 - 20 6 - 14 +6 +3 C C B +3 C C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.3 4.9 2.5 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 4.0 7.1 0.6 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 11.2 3.1 0.0 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 12.6 9.0 0.3 23.4 10th
11th 4.9 15.9 13.0 1.6 35.4 11th
Total 5.0 17.3 27.5 26.2 16.2 6.1 1.5 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-12 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 16.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 16.1
6-14 26.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 26.1
5-15 27.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.5
4-16 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-17 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%