Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#151
Pace61.2#348
Improvement+6.3#2

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#34
First Shot+6.8#31
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks-2.8#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#14
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement+2.6#22

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#92
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#149
Layups/Dunks+3.6#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
Freethrows+2.4#51
Improvement+3.7#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.7% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 25.1% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.7% 20.6% 9.8%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 9.5
.500 or above 66.1% 71.9% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.7% 58.6% 47.5%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.3% 7.2%
First Four4.1% 4.6% 2.7%
First Round19.9% 22.8% 11.4%
Second Round9.7% 11.4% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Neutral) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 25 - 58 - 13
Quad 34 - 212 - 15
Quad 45 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 231   Lafayette W 75-63 93%     1 - 0 +5.2 +2.9 +2.5
  Nov 06, 2024 192   Columbia L 80-90 90%     1 - 1 -14.4 +5.5 -20.3
  Nov 08, 2024 347   NJIT W 91-54 98%     2 - 1 +21.7 +26.0 +1.6
  Nov 12, 2024 101   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 56%     2 - 2 +0.9 +2.8 -1.4
  Nov 15, 2024 90   Virginia L 60-70 64%     2 - 3 -4.1 -0.9 -4.4
  Nov 19, 2024 279   Penn W 93-49 95%     3 - 3 +34.6 +20.0 +18.2
  Nov 24, 2024 19   Maryland L 75-76 31%     3 - 4 +13.6 +19.7 -6.2
  Nov 27, 2024 257   Rider W 72-48 94%     4 - 4 +15.7 +8.2 +11.9
  Dec 03, 2024 25   Cincinnati W 68-60 45%     5 - 4 +18.9 +14.8 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 118   Temple W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 11, 2024 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-64 99%    
  Dec 17, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 65-55 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 40   @ Creighton L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 01, 2025 54   @ Butler L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 97   DePaul W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 08, 2025 11   Connecticut L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 20   @ St. John's L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 14, 2025 68   @ Xavier L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 17, 2025 79   Providence W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 20, 2025 98   Georgetown W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 24, 2025 12   @ Marquette L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 40   Creighton W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 97   @ DePaul W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 09, 2025 68   Xavier W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 12, 2025 20   St. John's L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 79   @ Providence L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 18, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 21, 2025 12   Marquette L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 62-58 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   Butler W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 98   @ Georgetown W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.2 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.9 1.4 0.1 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 5.7 8.6 10.6 12.6 13.1 12.6 10.3 8.0 5.6 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 92.1% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 67.4% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 40.7% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 13.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 98.1% 31.1% 67.0% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.6% 99.0% 18.8% 80.2% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
15-5 3.5% 91.9% 16.1% 75.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 90.3%
14-6 5.6% 76.7% 14.3% 62.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.4 1.3 72.8%
13-7 8.0% 55.1% 10.6% 44.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 3.6 49.7%
12-8 10.3% 36.6% 7.0% 29.6% 10.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.1 6.5 31.8%
11-9 12.6% 17.6% 5.5% 12.1% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 10.4 12.8%
10-10 13.1% 6.9% 3.3% 3.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 12.2 3.7%
9-11 12.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.4 0.6%
8-12 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.5
7-13 8.6% 0.9% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
6-14 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 5.7
5-15 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.9% 5.1% 16.8% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.0 3.3 3.9 5.2 4.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 78.1 17.7%