Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#201
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#170
Pace63.5#311
Improvement+2.1#87

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#286
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks-3.8#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#81
Freethrows-2.0#301
Improvement+0.9#119

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot+2.9#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#246
Layups/Dunks+0.1#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#64
Freethrows-0.8#243
Improvement+1.3#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 25.0% 19.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 86.3% 94.1% 80.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.9% 98.2%
Conference Champion 43.7% 59.0% 32.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 1.6% 2.5%
First Round20.9% 24.3% 18.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 42.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 417 - 519 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 208   Vermont W 65-51 64%     1 - 0 +8.3 -0.4 +10.1
  Nov 13, 2024 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 9%     1 - 1 -8.2 -24.2 +16.3
  Nov 17, 2024 112   Princeton L 57-68 43%     1 - 2 -11.1 -6.6 -6.6
  Nov 20, 2024 72   @ Rutgers L 63-74 13%     1 - 3 -0.6 -1.4 +0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 81   @ Butler L 39-78 14%     1 - 4 -29.2 -23.6 -11.3
  Nov 25, 2024 172   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 33%     1 - 5 -4.4 -3.1 -1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 244   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 60%     1 - 6 -6.5 -8.1 +1.8
  Nov 29, 2024 130   @ Troy W 72-68 25%     2 - 6 +9.2 +9.4 +0.2
  Dec 06, 2024 350   @ Canisius W 60-52 77%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -1.7 -16.5 +15.3
  Dec 08, 2024 299   @ Niagara W 80-62 61%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +13.2 +24.4 -6.7
  Dec 13, 2024 285   Boston University W 64-61 78%     5 - 6 -6.9 +2.2 -8.4
  Dec 17, 2024 91   @ Stanford L 68-74 15%     5 - 7 +3.1 +0.4 +2.5
  Dec 19, 2024 39   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 7%     5 - 8 +10.0 +13.6 -4.3
  Jan 03, 2025 300   Fairfield W 67-54 80%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +2.1 -2.9 +6.9
  Jan 10, 2025 281   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 57%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -2.6 -8.1 +5.5
  Jan 12, 2025 297   Manhattan W 69-62 80%     8 - 8 5 - 0 -3.7 -6.4 +3.3
  Jan 16, 2025 212   @ Quinnipiac L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 292   Siena W 67-59 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 233   @ St. Peter's L 58-59 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Fairfield W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 31, 2025 224   Mount St. Mary's W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 02, 2025 316   @ Rider W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 299   Niagara W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 350   Canisius W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 14, 2025 297   @ Manhattan W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 207   Marist W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 21, 2025 281   Sacred Heart W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 23, 2025 267   @ Iona W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 316   Rider W 70-60 82%    
  Mar 02, 2025 212   Quinnipiac W 69-65 63%    
  Mar 06, 2025 207   @ Marist L 60-62 41%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 8.0 12.3 10.7 6.5 2.5 0.4 43.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 7.6 7.6 4.3 0.8 0.0 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.7 8.5 12.7 15.8 17.5 16.8 11.6 6.5 2.5 0.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5 0.0
18-2 99.7% 6.5    6.2 0.3
17-3 93.0% 10.7    9.2 1.5 0.1
16-4 73.3% 12.3    8.1 3.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 45.3% 8.0    3.6 3.2 1.1 0.1
14-6 18.7% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.7% 43.7 30.6 10.0 2.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 34.4% 34.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-1 2.5% 39.6% 39.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5
18-2 6.5% 34.6% 34.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 4.3
17-3 11.6% 30.6% 30.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.3 8.0
16-4 16.8% 26.0% 26.0% 15.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.7 12.4
15-5 17.5% 23.0% 23.0% 15.3 0.3 2.1 1.6 13.5
14-6 15.8% 20.5% 20.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.9 12.5
13-7 12.7% 15.2% 15.2% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.5 10.7
12-8 8.5% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.1 0.7 7.6
11-9 4.7% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.3
10-10 2.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.0
9-11 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.7 10.1 7.3 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 1.4 35.6 60.3 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%