Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#306
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#290
Pace63.7#302
Improvement+0.9#149

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#282
First Shot-8.7#359
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#7
Layup/Dunks-5.8#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#360
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement+0.8#147

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#301
First Shot-3.2#281
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#283
Layups/Dunks-1.9#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#324
Freethrows+2.3#46
Improvement+0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 3.3% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 32.3% 7.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 2.2%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 1213 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 25   @ UCLA L 50-85 2%     0 - 1 -17.4 -8.8 -11.6
  Nov 06, 2024 313   @ San Diego W 68-67 42%     1 - 1 -5.2 -7.3 +2.1
  Nov 09, 2024 362   @ Coppin St. W 64-53 75%     2 - 1 -4.5 -10.6 +6.3
  Nov 12, 2024 286   @ Navy W 90-79 35%     3 - 1 +6.5 +16.4 -9.8
  Nov 19, 2024 62   @ Iowa L 58-83 4%     3 - 2 -13.4 -14.4 +1.7
  Nov 23, 2024 248   @ Bucknell W 57-53 28%     4 - 2 +1.5 -7.5 +9.5
  Nov 27, 2024 45   @ Villanova L 48-72 3%     4 - 3 -9.9 -11.5 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2024 233   Delaware L 66-72 43%     4 - 4 -12.5 -4.8 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2024 326   @ Fairfield L 75-78 47%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -10.7 +1.5 -12.3
  Dec 06, 2024 192   Quinnipiac L 67-72 34%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -9.2 +0.4 -10.1
  Dec 14, 2024 312   Stony Brook L 55-72 61%     4 - 7 -28.2 -15.0 -16.4
  Dec 20, 2024 277   @ Penn L 66-79 33%     4 - 8 -16.9 -1.3 -17.3
  Dec 22, 2024 93   @ North Carolina St. L 63-89 7%     4 - 9 -18.0 -2.2 -17.1
  Jan 05, 2025 274   Manhattan L 79-80 51%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -9.7 +1.3 -11.0
  Jan 10, 2025 355   @ Canisius L 67-85 60%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -29.0 -5.3 -25.8
  Jan 12, 2025 307   @ Niagara W 68-65 41%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -2.9 -0.5 -2.1
  Jan 16, 2025 264   Mount St. Mary's W 66-60 49%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -2.2 -12.2 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 225   @ Marist W 64-57 24%     7 - 11 3 - 4 +6.0 -0.4 +7.0
  Jan 23, 2025 252   Iona L 67-73 47%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -13.6 -4.4 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 192   @ Quinnipiac L 64-75 19%     7 - 13 3 - 6 -10.3 -4.2 -6.5
  Jan 31, 2025 283   St. Peter's W 67-64 54%     8 - 13 4 - 6 -6.3 +4.8 -10.6
  Feb 02, 2025 194   Merrimack L 64-66 34%     8 - 14 4 - 7 -6.3 -0.5 -5.9
  Feb 06, 2025 270   @ Sacred Heart L 77-89 32%     8 - 15 4 - 8 -15.6 -0.5 -14.9
  Feb 08, 2025 243   Siena W 61-59 46%     9 - 15 5 - 8 -5.2 -5.8 +0.9
  Feb 14, 2025 252   @ Iona L 65-71 27%    
  Feb 16, 2025 283   @ St. Peter's L 61-65 33%    
  Feb 21, 2025 326   Fairfield W 72-68 67%    
  Feb 23, 2025 264   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 28, 2025 194   @ Merrimack L 59-68 18%    
  Mar 06, 2025 355   Canisius W 75-67 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 307   Niagara W 68-66 61%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.7 0.8 5.6 6th
7th 0.5 6.7 4.6 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.1 5.3 10.7 1.4 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 0.0 4.0 16.8 5.5 0.1 26.4 9th
10th 1.0 10.4 7.0 0.3 18.7 10th
11th 0.2 4.3 6.8 0.6 11.8 11th
12th 0.8 2.7 1.1 4.5 12th
13th 0.3 0.1 0.3 13th
Total 1.2 8.1 22.4 30.2 24.3 11.0 2.6 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
10-10 11.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.7
9-11 24.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 23.9
8-12 30.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.3 29.9
7-13 22.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.2
6-14 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.1
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%