Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Pace65.7#246
Improvement+1.7#106

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#271
First Shot-3.8#289
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#167
Layup/Dunks-5.1#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#191
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement+0.9#140

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#209
First Shot-0.9#209
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#218
Layups/Dunks-4.0#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#55
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement+0.8#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.7% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 51.4% 66.2% 31.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.0% 86.2% 55.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 2.3% 2.9%
First Round5.3% 6.8% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 32 - 63 - 7
Quad 414 - 916 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 217   Brown W 72-71 OT 53%     1 - 0 -4.5 -5.5 +1.0
  Nov 08, 2024 159   @ Bryant W 90-88 OT 23%     2 - 0 +4.9 +3.8 +0.8
  Nov 12, 2024 248   American W 74-66 60%     3 - 0 +0.6 +10.3 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 276   @ Albany L 60-70 46%     3 - 1 -13.9 -11.5 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 46   @ Xavier L 55-80 5%     3 - 2 -11.0 -8.4 -3.8
  Nov 25, 2024 150   Miami (OH) L 58-70 30%     3 - 3 -11.3 -12.0 +0.1
  Nov 26, 2024 181   Jacksonville L 64-75 36%     3 - 4 -12.1 -5.5 -6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 239   Bucknell W 71-58 49%     4 - 4 +8.4 +6.4 +3.7
  Dec 06, 2024 305   @ Niagara L 68-69 54%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -6.8 +4.0 -11.0
  Dec 08, 2024 355   @ Canisius W 66-53 73%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +1.9 -1.7 +6.1
  Dec 17, 2024 110   St. Bonaventure L 48-65 29%     5 - 6 -16.0 -21.1 +4.2
  Dec 20, 2024 317   Holy Cross L 70-78 74%     5 - 7 -19.7 -1.5 -19.1
  Dec 30, 2024 129   @ Cornell W 83-77 20%     6 - 7 +10.2 +3.8 +6.1
  Jan 03, 2025 272   Manhattan W 103-95 2OT 65%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -0.7 +1.9 -4.2
  Jan 05, 2025 252   Iona L 73-74 61%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -8.6 -7.9 -0.5
  Jan 10, 2025 194   @ Quinnipiac L 53-72 30%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -18.3 -18.3 +0.2
  Jan 16, 2025 271   Sacred Heart W 93-75 65%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +9.3 +14.9 -5.5
  Jan 18, 2025 195   @ Merrimack L 58-64 30%     8 - 10 3 - 4 -5.3 -3.4 -2.6
  Jan 23, 2025 265   Mount St. Mary's W 82-68 63%     9 - 10 4 - 4 +5.8 +14.4 -7.3
  Jan 25, 2025 252   @ Iona L 68-72 42%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -6.6 -1.7 -5.0
  Jan 31, 2025 226   @ Marist L 67-72 36%     9 - 12 4 - 6 -6.0 +3.5 -10.0
  Feb 02, 2025 194   Quinnipiac W 84-75 48%     10 - 12 5 - 6 +4.7 +1.2 +2.5
  Feb 06, 2025 283   St. Peter's W 77-63 67%     11 - 12 6 - 6 +4.6 -0.3 +4.3
  Feb 08, 2025 307   @ Rider L 59-61 54%     11 - 13 6 - 7 -8.0 -8.8 +0.5
  Feb 14, 2025 226   Marist W 64-63 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 271   @ Sacred Heart L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 21, 2025 305   Niagara W 70-64 73%    
  Feb 23, 2025 355   Canisius W 76-65 87%    
  Mar 02, 2025 265   @ Mount St. Mary's L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 06, 2025 326   Fairfield W 73-65 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 272   @ Manhattan L 73-74 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 1.6 4.0 3rd
4th 0.3 4.7 6.8 1.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 4.2 12.9 4.3 0.1 21.6 5th
6th 1.3 11.8 7.5 0.4 20.9 6th
7th 0.2 6.1 10.3 1.4 0.0 17.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 8.9 2.7 0.1 13.7 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 2.0 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.8 1.3 0.1 2.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 1.6 6.8 18.4 29.3 26.7 13.8 3.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 3.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.7
12-8 13.8% 11.4% 11.4% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.0 12.2
11-9 26.7% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.3 1.7 24.7
10-10 29.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 1.5 27.7
9-11 18.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 17.8
8-12 6.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 6.6
7-13 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.0 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.8 1.8 19.6 73.2 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%