Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#266
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#209
Pace62.7#339
Improvement+0.7#125

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#273
First Shot-1.5#217
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#326
Layup/Dunks-4.6#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#101
Freethrows+2.0#75
Improvement+0.1#163

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#236
First Shot+2.8#81
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#361
Layups/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#44
Freethrows-0.6#223
Improvement+0.6#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 36.3% 50.7% 27.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.2% 76.7% 53.1%
Conference Champion 2.8% 4.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.8%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round3.5% 4.6% 2.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 413 - 615 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 164 South Dakota St. L 66-75 30%     0 - 1 -9.3 -6.6 -2.8
  Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     0 - 2 -20.6 -7.9 -14.1
  Tue, Nov 11 194 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 26%     0 - 3 -13.1 -13.0 +0.6
  Sat, Nov 15 288 @Boston University W 91-79 43%     1 - 3 +8.1 +20.6 -11.4
  Wed, Nov 19 335 Maine W 72-65 78%     2 - 3 -6.8 +6.3 -12.1
  Fri, Nov 21 13 @Florida L 45-80 2%     2 - 4 -14.2 -13.6 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 28 254 @Penn L 65-77 37%     2 - 5 -14.3 -8.3 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 29 115 Hofstra L 58-78 19%     2 - 6 -16.6 -10.4 -7.1
  Sun, Nov 30 238 La Salle W 66-60 45%     3 - 6 +1.6 -0.3 +2.5
  Thu, Dec 4 348 Rider W 68-66 81%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -12.9 -0.6 -12.1
  Sun, Dec 7 301 Fairfield W 74-63 68%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +0.6 +2.6 -1.1
  Wed, Dec 10 257 @Princeton W 59-56 37%     6 - 6 +0.6 -0.6 +1.8
  Sun, Dec 14 175 @Vermont L 59-66 23%     6 - 7 -5.1 -4.0 -2.5
  Mon, Dec 29 268 @Sacred Heart L 71-74 39%    
  Fri, Jan 2 302 Mount St. Mary's W 70-65 67%    
  Sun, Jan 4 319 Manhattan W 76-69 74%    
  Fri, Jan 9 171 @Siena L 62-70 23%    
  Sun, Jan 11 290 @St. Peter's L 63-65 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 157 Quinnipiac L 70-73 40%    
  Mon, Jan 19 163 @Marist L 60-68 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 172 @Iona L 68-76 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 290 St. Peter's W 66-62 65%    
  Sun, Feb 1 268 Sacred Heart W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 302 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 348 @Rider W 64-61 61%    
  Thu, Feb 12 163 Marist L 63-65 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 157 @Quinnipiac L 67-76 21%    
  Fri, Feb 20 171 Siena L 65-67 44%    
  Sun, Feb 22 172 Iona L 71-73 43%    
  Fri, Feb 27 342 @Canisius W 64-62 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 353 @Niagara W 67-63 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.4 4.0 1.0 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.6 5.2 1.3 0.1 14.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.1 5.4 1.4 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.0 1.3 0.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.6 1.3 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.9 3.6 1.3 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 7.3 10.3 13.3 14.9 14.2 12.5 9.3 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 83.1% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 59.3% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.4% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 34.6% 34.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 19.2% 19.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
16-4 1.5% 13.0% 13.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
15-5 3.3% 13.3% 13.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.9
14-6 5.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 5.2
13-7 9.3% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 8.6
12-8 12.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.2 0.5 11.8
11-9 14.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.4 13.7
10-10 14.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 14.5
9-11 13.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.1
8-12 10.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.2
7-13 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
6-14 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 95.9 0.0%