Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #200
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #156
Pace 62.3 #337
Improvement +6.8 #9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #248 D D C+ B B
Defense #149 C+ F+ B- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.03 #326 -2.2 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.73 #226 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 48% #48 0.92 #308 +1.1 #140
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #309 -4.3 #310
Freethrows 0.33 #105 78% #20 0.26 #56
Second Chance 24.2% #335 0.99 #237 0.24 #332
Turnovers 16.1% #123
Total Offense -3.0 #248

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.07 #76 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.85 #317 -1.6 #302
Three Pointers 35% #334 0.94 #75 +4.4 #28
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #103 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 0.34 #294 73% #231 0.25 #293
Second Chance 41.4% #365 0.99 #130 0.41 #353
Turnovers 19.1% #67
Total Defense +0.4 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #53 -0.1% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.0% #333 -4.2% #99
Possession Length 18.3 #290 18.3 #320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #169 0.12 #37
Improvement +3.0 #52 +3.9 #22

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 15.2% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 57.1% 68.7% 41.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round14.1% 15.0% 13.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 74 - 9
Quad 416 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 187 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 47% -2  0 - 1 -11 -9 F F C -2 B- D- B+
 Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57 - 95 4% -18  0 - 2 -19 -7 F D B+ -14 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 224 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 43% -5  0 - 3 -15 -13 F D- F -1 D C- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 288 @Boston University W 91 - 79 56% +10  1 - 3 +8 +20 A+ C F -11 D- F D
 Wed, Nov 19 345 Maine W 72 - 65 87% +3  2 - 3 -8 +6 D B+ B -13 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 7 @Florida L 45 - 80 1% -24  2 - 4 -10 -12 F D+ C -0 A F B
 Fri, Nov 28 181 @Penn L 65 - 77 35% -4  2 - 5 -10 -5 F D A+ -5 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 126 Hofstra L 58 - 78 32% -12  2 - 6 -18 -13 D F C+ -6 C B- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 225 La Salle W 66 - 60 54% +4  3 - 6 +2 -1 D+ D B- +3 C D- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 351 Rider W 68 - 66 89% +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -14 -5 C F C+ -8 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 271 Fairfield W 74 - 63 74% +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +2 +2 B- F B- +1 C- B A-
 Wed, Dec 10 215 @Princeton W 59 - 56 40% +2  6 - 6 +3 -1 D F A+ +4 A+ F C-
 Sun, Dec 14 214 @Vermont L 59 - 66 40% -7  6 - 7 -7 -3 F+ C D- -5 B+ D- D-
 Mon, Dec 29 273 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 53% +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +5 +8 C+ D- C+ -3 D+ D- C
 Fri, Jan 2 291 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 77% +4  8 - 7 4 - 0 -0 +0 D D+ C -1 A- D+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 328 Manhattan W 73 - 66 84% +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -6 -6 C F B -0 B- C D-
 Fri, Jan 9 177 @Siena W 63 - 59 33% +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +6 +9 C+ D+ A- -2 B- F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 234 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 44% -9  10 - 8 6 - 1 -14 +0 F B- C+ -16 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 188 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 59% +12  11 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +12 A- B C- -5 A- D- D
 Mon, Jan 19 160 @Marist W 68 - 55 30% +6  12 - 8 8 - 1 +16 +8 B+ F C+ +9 A+ D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 232 @Iona L 60 - 61 44% -1  12 - 9 8 - 2 -2 -2 D B F -0 B- C C
 Sat, Jan 24 234 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 67% +11  13 - 9 9 - 2 +1 -0 D+ D+ B +2 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 273 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 74% +8  14 - 9 10 - 2 +8 +2 F A- A+ +7 B B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 291 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 65 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 351 @Rider W 70 - 63 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 160 Marist W 63 - 62 51%
 Sun, Feb 15 188 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 73 36%
 Fri, Feb 20 177 Siena W 68 - 66 54%
 Sun, Feb 22 232 Iona W 71 - 67 66%
 Fri, Feb 27 348 @Canisius W 67 - 61 74%
 Sun, Mar 1 341 @Niagara W 67 - 61 71%
Totals 19 - 12 15 - 5 -3 -3 D D C+ +0 C+ F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.8 18.3 21.0 10.2 2.6 57.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 12.9 6.0 0.5 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.6 5.5 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 4.2 0.4 6.3 4th
5th 0.5 1.8 0.7 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.3 12.3 23.7 24.3 21.5 10.2 2.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.6    2.6
17-3 100.0% 10.2    10.2 0.1
16-4 97.9% 21.0    17.3 3.7 0.0
15-5 75.1% 18.3    6.2 9.3 2.6 0.2
14-6 20.3% 4.8    0.3 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 57.1% 57.1 36.5 14.6 4.6 1.2 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.6% 14.9% 14.9% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.2
17-3 10.2% 18.5% 18.5% 14.6 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.1 8.3
16-4 21.5% 16.7% 16.7% 14.9 0.1 0.7 2.3 0.5 17.9
15-5 24.3% 15.7% 15.7% 15.2 0.4 2.4 1.0 20.5
14-6 23.7% 14.5% 14.5% 15.5 0.1 1.6 1.8 20.3
13-7 12.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.6 0.4 0.7 11.2
12-8 4.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.1
11-9 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 1.0
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 15.1 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.8 30.8 61.5 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%