Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#154
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#191
Pace73.1#74
Improvement-0.6#221

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#116
First Shot+3.6#86
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#260
Layup/Dunks+3.1#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#282
Freethrows+3.2#45
Improvement+0.1#171

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#232
First Shot-1.5#218
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#213
Layups/Dunks-6.0#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows+1.1#118
Improvement-0.8#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 31.1% 25.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 92.6% 96.8% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 95.3% 91.9%
Conference Champion 38.1% 42.9% 34.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four1.6% 1.0% 2.0%
First Round27.1% 30.7% 24.4%
Second Round1.7% 2.2% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 43 - 7
Quad 417 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 209   St. Peter's W 81-74 70%     1 - 0 +1.7 +7.5 -5.8
  Nov 15, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 2%     1 - 1 -34.8 -17.9 -7.9
  Nov 17, 2024 75   @ Washington L 69-74 17%     1 - 2 +5.5 +2.5 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2024 245   Quinnipiac W 80-70 77%     2 - 2 +2.6 +1.8 +0.4
  Nov 25, 2024 222   Merrimack W 81-74 74%     3 - 2 +0.7 +6.0 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2024 137   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 35%     3 - 3 +1.4 +20.5 -19.2
  Dec 01, 2024 240   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 56%     3 - 4 -3.3 -4.3 +1.0
  Dec 07, 2024 171   @ Massachusetts L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 11, 2024 342   LIU Brooklyn W 84-69 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 319   Dartmouth W 82-70 87%    
  Dec 18, 2024 336   Stonehill W 80-67 89%    
  Dec 21, 2024 268   Boston University W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 237   @ Albany W 82-81 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 183   Vermont W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 347   NJIT W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Bryant L 83-85 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 211   Maine W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 350   New Hampshire W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 30, 2025 347   @ NJIT W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 296   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-83 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 322   @ Binghamton W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 237   Albany W 85-78 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 350   @ New Hampshire W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 20, 2025 296   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 90-80 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 183   @ Vermont L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 176   Bryant W 86-82 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 322   Binghamton W 80-68 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 211   @ Maine L 71-72 49%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 8.0 11.6 9.5 5.0 1.3 38.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.7 7.9 2.8 0.3 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 1.7 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.5 9.7 13.5 16.3 16.8 14.4 9.8 5.0 1.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
15-1 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.1
14-2 97.0% 9.5    8.5 1.1
13-3 80.3% 11.6    7.7 3.5 0.3
12-4 47.6% 8.0    3.2 3.7 1.1 0.0
11-5 15.2% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.1% 38.1 26.1 9.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.3% 63.2% 63.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5
15-1 5.0% 52.9% 52.9% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.3
14-2 9.8% 45.2% 45.2% 13.6 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.4
13-3 14.4% 36.8% 36.8% 14.2 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.7 0.1 9.1
12-4 16.8% 31.0% 31.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 0.5 11.6
11-5 16.3% 26.2% 26.2% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 1.1 12.0
10-6 13.5% 18.8% 18.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 11.0
9-7 9.7% 14.3% 14.3% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 8.3
8-8 6.5% 10.5% 10.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 5.9
7-9 3.7% 9.4% 9.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.3
6-10 1.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.8
5-11 0.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 7.6 9.2 4.7 72.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 0.6 1.7 42.8 48.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%